Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 28, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Since late August, interest rates have been steadily rising. The 10-year T-note yield made its recent low at 2.82%[1] on August 4th. Since then, yields have moved above 3.00%. Our 10-year T-note model suggests rates are a bit elevated. This model includes fed funds and the 15-year moving average of inflation (a… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part II (September 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we discussed Venezuela’s economic and political situations. Part II begins with a discussion on migration with a focus on emigrant flows. We include an analysis of the problems caused by migration followed by an examination of the possible end to this crisis and the broader geopolitical issues. As always, we will… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 21, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In this week’s report, we will focus on the U.S. economy. Since the 1987 crash every major equity market decline has coincided with a recession. Thus, we pay close attention to the economy with the goal of projecting the next recession. This expansion, which began in June 2009, is now the second… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part I (September 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Venezuela has gone from “bad to worse” in recent years. In 1999, Hugo Chavez was elected president and took the country on a journey into Cuba-style socialism. Persistent government intrusion into the economy reduced private sector involvement. Although the oil sector was able to generate enough revenue to allow Chavez to fund his… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 14, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Emerging markets have fallen in recent weeks. The decline is being driven by a couple of factors. First, the dollar has appreciated due to concerns that tariffs will restrict foreign country access to the U.S. consumer and the dollars they spend. In other words, if the U.S. restricts trade, countries will struggle… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Battle for Idlib (September 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Two years ago, it looked as if Syrian President Bashar Assad was either about to be ousted from power or doomed to control an ever-shrinking area of Syria. Islamic State, Kurds and various rebel groups controlled much of what once constituted Syria. In fact, the frontier between Syria and Iraq was mostly a… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (September 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Since mid-Q1, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $64 to a high of $71 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline, production problems in several OPEC nations, fears of new Iran sanctions and stable global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 7, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Traditionally, the election season kicks off with Labor Day so, with last Monday’s holiday, the election cycle is upon us. The midterm election year tends to be lackluster for equities until Q4, when a strong rally usually develops. The data for this chart is developed by taking the weekly closes for the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 31, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In light of the recent conviction of Paul Manafort and the guilty pleas by Michael Cohen, along with the upcoming midterm elections, we have been receiving questions about the political landscape going into winter. In this report, we will discuss our baseline expectations for political trends and their potential effect on financial… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part II (August 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 10.) Last week, we covered Turkey’s geopolitics and history.[1] This week, we complete the series, starting with a discussion on Turkey’s economy with a focus on the changes brought by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by… Read More »