Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 15, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Rare events can be difficult for financial markets to accommodate. In general, prices in financial markets, which are the sum of estimates about the future, take a while to settle on the impact of something that doesn’t happen often. The recent pandemic, 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, etc. are… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (January 14, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices are continuing to march higher. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 3.2 mb, in line with industry forecasts. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was unchanged at 11.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.6 mbpd, while imports… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 14, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning. Equity markets are moving higher despite the continued lift in interest rates. Our coverage begins with affairs in Washington, the impeachment, and policy. China news comes next. There is an update on the breadth of stock purchase bans… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 13, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a brief review of U.S. political and policy news, as momentum builds for the second impeachment of President Trump. We then review key international developments and, as always, the latest on the coronavirus pandemic and… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 12, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a discussion of the latest U.S. political news, but since the markets have largely looked past the recent turmoil, we don’t go into great detail on the issue. We quickly move on to the latest… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China Balance of Power: Part I (January 11, 2021)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (Note: Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, our next WGR will be published on January 25.) We’ve often written in these reports that one of the most important challenges of the 21st century will be the geopolitical tensions generated as China strengthens and comes into ever greater competition… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 11, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning. Equity markets are weaker this morning. Numerous reasons are causing this weakness. Political unrest, rising COVID-19 infections, and the simple fact that markets don’t rally in a straight line are all part of today’s decline. The underlying factors… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 8, 2021)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF The Asset Allocation Weekly is available here. Good morning. Today U.S. equity futures are elevated as investors anticipate more fiscal stimulus. A slowdown in job creation and a Democrat majority in both houses likely supports the case for more expansionary… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 8, 2021)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Although U.S. equity markets appear richly valued based on historical metrics, relative to interest rates, current values of relative earnings or sales are not extreme. Thus, the direction of interest rates and, more specifically, the direction of monetary policy, is a key element in equity values going forward. In… Read More »