Research & News
Quarterly Energy Comment (September 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Since mid-Q1, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $64 to a high of $71 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline, production problems in several OPEC nations, fears of new Iran sanctions and stable global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 7, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Traditionally, the election season kicks off with Labor Day so, with last Monday’s holiday, the election cycle is upon us. The midterm election year tends to be lackluster for equities until Q4, when a strong rally usually develops. The data for this chart is developed by taking the weekly closes for the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 31, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In light of the recent conviction of Paul Manafort and the guilty pleas by Michael Cohen, along with the upcoming midterm elections, we have been receiving questions about the political landscape going into winter. In this report, we will discuss our baseline expectations for political trends and their potential effect on financial… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part II (August 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 10.) Last week, we covered Turkey’s geopolitics and history.[1] This week, we complete the series, starting with a discussion on Turkey’s economy with a focus on the changes brought by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 24, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee What is price stability? The working definition for the Federal Reserve was crafted by Alan Greenspan in 1994, when he suggested that price stability has been achieved when “…households and businesses need not factor expectations of changes in the average level of prices into their decisions.”[1] In other words, a central bank… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part I (August 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Over the past few months, Turkey has become a major topic of interest. Recep Erdogan won re-election to the presidency in June 2018. This event was important because a referendum on a new constitution in 2017 gave the office of the president sweeping powers; the previous constitution was based on a parliamentary model… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 17, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for July. Inflation continues to rise; the overall rate rose 2.9% and the closely watched core rate (the rate less food and energy) rose to 2.4%, the highest rate since September 2008. Rising inflation raises policy concerns. In this week’s report,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part III (August 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Trump administration withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal earlier this year and plans to implement sanctions on the country in two phases, the first of which went into effect in early August with a second round in November. In Part I of this report, we introduced this topic and covered the first… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 10, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last year, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part II (August 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we introduced the topic of the Trump administration’s decision to implement sanctions on Iran and covered two potential responses from Iran, which were restarting its nuclear program and projecting power. This week, we will discuss the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Response #3: Closing the Strait of Hormuz On its… Read More »