Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part I (September 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Venezuela has gone from “bad to worse” in recent years. In 1999, Hugo Chavez was elected president and took the country on a journey into Cuba-style socialism. Persistent government intrusion into the economy reduced private sector involvement. Although the oil sector was able to generate enough revenue to allow Chavez to fund his… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 14, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Emerging markets have fallen in recent weeks. The decline is being driven by a couple of factors. First, the dollar has appreciated due to concerns that tariffs will restrict foreign country access to the U.S. consumer and the dollars they spend. In other words, if the U.S. restricts trade, countries will struggle… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Battle for Idlib (September 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Two years ago, it looked as if Syrian President Bashar Assad was either about to be ousted from power or doomed to control an ever-shrinking area of Syria. Islamic State, Kurds and various rebel groups controlled much of what once constituted Syria. In fact, the frontier between Syria and Iraq was mostly a… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (September 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Since mid-Q1, oil prices have ranged from a low of around $64 to a high of $71 per barrel. Prices remain elevated, supported by OPEC production discipline, production problems in several OPEC nations, fears of new Iran sanctions and stable global oil demand. Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 7, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Traditionally, the election season kicks off with Labor Day so, with last Monday’s holiday, the election cycle is upon us. The midterm election year tends to be lackluster for equities until Q4, when a strong rally usually develops. The data for this chart is developed by taking the weekly closes for the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 31, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In light of the recent conviction of Paul Manafort and the guilty pleas by Michael Cohen, along with the upcoming midterm elections, we have been receiving questions about the political landscape going into winter. In this report, we will discuss our baseline expectations for political trends and their potential effect on financial… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part II (August 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 10.) Last week, we covered Turkey’s geopolitics and history.[1] This week, we complete the series, starting with a discussion on Turkey’s economy with a focus on the changes brought by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 24, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee What is price stability? The working definition for the Federal Reserve was crafted by Alan Greenspan in 1994, when he suggested that price stability has been achieved when “…households and businesses need not factor expectations of changes in the average level of prices into their decisions.”[1] In other words, a central bank… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part I (August 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Over the past few months, Turkey has become a major topic of interest. Recep Erdogan won re-election to the presidency in June 2018. This event was important because a referendum on a new constitution in 2017 gave the office of the president sweeping powers; the previous constitution was based on a parliamentary model… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 17, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for July. Inflation continues to rise; the overall rate rose 2.9% and the closely watched core rate (the rate less food and energy) rose to 2.4%, the highest rate since September 2008. Rising inflation raises policy concerns. In this week’s report,… Read More »