Research & News
Daily Comment (December 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning on a busy Thursday (and a snowy one for our friends in the Northeast). Equity futures are up this morning, while the dollar is down sharply and gold and bitcoin are higher. In fact, bitcoin broke $20k, supported… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF A note to readers: The Weekly Energy Update will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report and will return on January 7, 2021. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we want to wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! See… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest pandemic news, including the state of play on the new pandemic relief proposal in Congress, which has been buoying equity markets. We next turn to U.S. political and policy news, including a preview… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 15, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest coronavirus news. Some of that news is good, such as the first U.S. vaccinations and signs that at least a trimmed down pandemic relief bill is in the offing again. However, some of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2021 Geopolitical Outlook (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last report of 2020; the next report will be published on January 11, 2021.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
2021 Outlook: The Recovery Year (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: The economy is in recovery, but the expansion phase of the cycle (where economic output exceeds its prior peak) isn’t likely to begin until 2022. We look for weak first quarter growth followed by more notable strength for the remaining three quarters as the COVID-19 vaccines… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as vaccine distribution begins. The Electoral College votes today. There are two big items today—Brexit and the vaccine, so we lead off with those two categories. There was… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday! The lack of progress on a stimulus package, the potential for a government shutdown, and the increasing likelihood of a disruptive Brexit are all weighing on equities this morning. Accordingly, we lead off our coverage… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 11, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF After peaking at $2,063 in early August, gold prices fell to $1,760 at the end of November. This is a notable decline and, because our asset allocation models have included precious metals since 2018, it makes sense to see if anything has changed. We have several different ways to… Read More »