Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Situation in Catalonia: Part II (November 13, 2017)
by Thomas Wash In Part I of our report, we examined the historical background of the Catalan independence movement. This week, we will continue our discussion by summarizing the constitutional crisis, identifying the significant players and their motives, noting the possible outcomes and concluding with market ramifications. Constitutional Crisis: A Summary In addition to the historical… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 10, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed our views of the debt markets. However, one item we didn’t examine was the dynamics of the yield curve. The U.S. Treasury market has both a domestic and an international component. While all sovereign debt markets have a domestic component, the international component is especially a factor for… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Situation in Catalonia: Part I (November 6, 2017)
by Thomas Wash On October 27, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy triggered Article 155 of Spain’s constitution. This allowed him to dissolve the Catalan Parliament, also known as the Generalitat, and hold new regional elections on December 21, 2017. Tensions between the Catalan government and the Spanish government reached a boiling point following the Catalan government’s… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 3, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The 10-year Treasury yield has recently been trending upward. Since early September, yields have risen from 2.06% to 2.46%. What’s behind this rise and do we expect it to continue? We use our 10-year T-note model for guidance. It estimates the fair value level of the 10-year T-note yield based on the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part III (October 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of our report, we reviewed the Minsaengdan Incident and a broad examination of the Korean War. In Part II, we completed our analysis of the war, discussed the Kim regime’s autarkic policy of Juche and outlined the impact of the Cultural Revolution on North Korean/Chinese relations. This week, Part III… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 27, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee It is expected that over the next two weeks President Trump is going to appoint a new Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) chair and vice chair. In this report, we will build scenarios of how policy could change depending upon whom the president appoints. This spreadsheet details our estimate of policy… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2017)
Our inflation outlook remains benign and economic data continues to be modestly positive. We do not anticipate a recession in the near term. Though the composition of the Fed will change over the next four months, we expect policy to continue toward tightening through increases in the fed funds rate and a reduction in the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part II (October 23, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we examined the Minsaengdan Incident and the onset of the Korean War. This week, we will discuss the final phase of the Korean War, the ceasefire, the introduction of Juche and the impact of the Cultural Revolution. The Korean War: The Latter Stages of the War and the Ceasefire Among the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 20, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Financial Accounts of the United States (formerly known as the Flow of Funds Report) is published by the Federal Reserve and provides data on the level of financial assets and liabilities by sector. Using this data, we can approximate the average asset allocation of American households over different periods. This accounting… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part I (October 16, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady The U.S. and North Korea have had a difficult history. The two countries were the primary combatants during the Korean War and still have not established a peace treaty. However, in the late 1970s, the Kim regime and the Carter administration considered normalizing relations. Carter’s national security team concluded there was little value… Read More »