Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 28, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF As people think about the supplemental federal unemployment benefit of $600 per week that was in place through July, most would assume that if the total benefits exceed a person’s actual wages, they will choose to be unemployed instead of accepting employment. Anecdotal reports suggest that companies are running… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning. After hitting another new high yesterday, S&P futures are consolidating this morning. There is a lot to get through today; the first revision to GDP is out and is covered below. We lead off with Chair Powell speaking… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell more than anticipated, declining 4.7 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb decline. The SPR declined 1.8 mb; since… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s a pretty quiet news day today, which is probably fitting for the dog days of summer. Unfortunately, the lack of news also means there’s still no discernible progress on the next coronavirus relief bill in Congress. Another negative is… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 25, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF The newest Confluence of Ideas podcast episode, “The Dollar and the Eurobond,” is available today! This episode looks at the decision by the EU to create a mutualized bond, a debt instrument backed by the full faith and credit of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Biden’s Foreign Policy (August 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Traditionally, Labor Day is considered the point when an increasing number of Americans start paying attention to the November elections. As part of our analysis of the candidates, we create dossiers of the candidates and the leading figures with whom they surround themselves. In this report, we will comment on… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s Monday and the last full week of August (that month went by fast, didn’t it?)! There is a lot going on this morning. We have twin tropical storms, one already in the Gulf of Mexico and the other on… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Friday! Equity futures are mostly marking time this morning. We lead off with foreign news; Iran, North Korea, and Russia are the focus. We also update news on China, followed by policy news and the latest on the pandemic. … Read More »