Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 21, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the relationships we monitor is retail money market levels (RMMKs). In theory, any available liquidity could conceivably end up purchasing equities. But, RMMKs are used by investors in their brokerage accounts and thus are probably “closer” to equities compared to other forms of “near money,” such as… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF We are seeing some reversals of recent trends in the wake of the Fed minutes. Currently, equity markets are lower this morning. Some of the weakness is being attributed to the lack of new fiscal stimulus, but we think a… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell less than anticipated, declining 1.6 mb compared to forecasts of a 2.9 mb decline. The SPR declined 2.7 mb as… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF On this, the 29th anniversary of the August 1991 coup in the Soviet Union, it looks like the U.S. equity market will follow through on its rise yesterday to a new record-high close. Today’s apparent follow-through comes despite very little… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 18, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF The modest uptick in risk assets so far today comes despite new U.S. moves to punish Chinese companies on national security and economic policy grounds, as well as the continued stalemate over a new U.S. coronavirus relief bill. We review… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – An Inflection Point in Lebanon (August 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On the afternoon of August 4, there was a massive explosion at the Port of Beirut. The explosion was one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history, a seismic event with a magnitude of 3.3 on the Richter scale. At latest count, 220 have been confirmed dead, 110 are missing,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Monday. Equity markets are higher this morning as the S&P 500 slowly trends toward a new high. Foreign news leads off our comments this morning, with a special focus on Belarus. China news is next, followed by market and… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Friday! It looks like a risk-off morning. Foreign news is the opening focus—the U.S. has engineered the UAE’s recognition of Israel, only the third nation in the region (Jordan and Egypt are the others) to grant formal recognition. China… Read More »