Research & News
Daily Comment (July 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Equity markets are modestly higher after a choppy week. The EU budget summit is underway. Relations between the U.S. and China continue to deteriorate. The new Asset Allocation Weekly is published below; the accompanying podcast and chartbook will… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 17, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the burning issues about the current path of policy is its inflationary impact. In other words, will the massive increase in fiscal spending and the Fed’s balance sheet lead to higher price levels? To discuss this issue, we return to the equation of exchange: M x V… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Global equity markets are lower this morning. Chinese stocks fell hard overnight but have been very strong recently. China’s GDP data came in stronger than forecast; we may be seeing a bit of “buy rumor, sell fact” behavior… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories reversed last week’s unexpected rise, with stockpiles falling 7.5 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.8 mb draw. The SPR added… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 15, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Financial markets are responding to important progress in developing a coronavirus vaccine today. You can almost hear “Happy Days Are Here Again” being played in the back of our minds, though it’s important to remember that plenty of economic and… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our latest Confluence of Ideas podcast episode is now available, titled “The 2020 Election: Part 2.” In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Why China and India Are Fighting (July 13, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF In a bizarre confrontation last month, Chinese and Indian soldiers fought a pitched battle in near total darkness high up in the Himalayan mountains. If that wasn’t strange enough, the weapons used were merely fists, stones, police batons, and wooden clubs wrapped in barbed wire or studded with nails.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! Global equity markets are higher this morning. There is a good deal of foreign news today, including Poland’s election news and Turkey’s controversial move to change a museum into a mosque. China will be next… Read More »