Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 14, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Given continued sluggish economic growth and fears that monetary policy has reached the point where it can no longer stimulate growth, a renewed attention has been brought to discretionary fiscal policy. In the 1970s, discretionary fiscal policy fell out of favor due to a number of shortcomings: Public investment, if needed, should… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – American Foreign Policy: A Review, Part II (October 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, in Part I of this study, we examined the four imperatives of American policy with an elaboration of each one. This week, we will discuss why each is important. We will examine why there has been a “drift” in American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. This drift… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 7, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the elections about a month away, we are fielding an increasing number of questions about the market impact of the result. Although some market commentators are raising concerns about a Trump victory, so far, market data doesn’t seem to suggest a high level of correlation. This chart shows Donald Trump’s average… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – American Foreign Policy: A Review, Part I (October 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In watching the political debates in the U.S. this election season, there appears to be a general misunderstanding of American foreign policy. Although we have touched on this issue before, with the elections only about a month away, it seemed like a good time to review U.S. foreign policy since WWII. This week,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 30, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, the FOMC left rates unchanged, as expected. The statement was rather hawkish but the accompanying information, such as the “dots” chart, was mostly dovish. Note that three of the 17 members of the committee want to stand pat for the rest of the year and two want to raise rates… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Goodbye, Dilma. Hello, Michel. (September 26, 2016)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA On August 31, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was impeached on charges of breaking budgetary laws, ending nine months of political infighting. The Brazilian Senate voted 61-20 to permanently remove her from her presidential post. Rousseff’s former vice president, Michel Temer, led the impeachment process and has assumed the presidential duties. This week… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 23, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Profit margins are off their highs but have started to improve. This chart takes total S&P 500 operating earnings as a percentage of GDP. Excluding the financial crisis, operating earnings have been running between 5% and 6% of GDP for most of the past decade and a half. In the middle of… Read More »