Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 19, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee U.S. equity markets are showing impressive strength. This chart shows the S&P 500 Index along with the 200-day moving average. The white horizontal line shows recent highs; note that the S&P 500 has recently moved above these highs. Technically, this is a “breakout” and suggests the market will likely move higher. Still,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking about Thinking: Part I (August 15, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady We are in the “dog days” of summer. The world is in turmoil. The U.S. presidential elections offer us a stark choice between a traditional establishment candidate and a populist alternative. Populism is on the rise in Europe, exhibited by the Brexit vote. Lone wolf terrorist attacks seem to occur with frightening regularity. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 12, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee We originally published the comments below in our Daily Comment on July 27. However, we have received a number of questions on the widening of the TED spread and the rise in LIBOR to warrant updating the report for this week’s Asset Allocation Weekly. There has been some curious behavior in the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part III (August 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we recounted the events of Turkey’s recent coup and some of our thoughts about why the coup failed and who was behind it. This week we will discuss the unfolding purge, including the role of Fethullah Gulen, and discuss the impact on regional geopolitics. In this week’s report, we will examine… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 5, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week’s GDP data for Q2 came in below expectations, rising 1.2%. Consumption was robust, accounting for 2.8% of GDP growth, but investment reduced growth by 1.7% and government peeled 0.2% from output. Net exports added 0.2% to GDP, but we would not be surprised to see the sector revised downward due… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part II (August 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we began a three-part series on the attempted Turkish coup that started on Friday, July 15. In Part I, we examined Turkey’s history to frame the historical conditions that affected the failed coup. As promised, this week’s report will discuss the actual coup. The Coup Around 7:30 p.m. Eastern European Standard… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 29, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent rebalance of our Asset Allocation portfolios, we maintained an allocation to emerging market equities in the Aggressive Growth portfolio. As we have noted in the past, there is a positive relationship between the dollar’s exchange rate and the relative performance of developed market equities and emerging market equities.… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkish Coup, Part I (July 25, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On Friday, July 15, reports out of Turkey indicated that unusual troop activity was underway which suggested a coup was in progress. In the U.S., as afternoon turned toward early evening, it was abundantly clear that elements of the Turkish security services were attempting to oust President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As the hours… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 22, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the most recent rebalance of our Asset Allocation portfolios, we introduced positions in gold. Although the yellow metal is classified as a commodity, we view it more as a currency, admittedly one that is not backed by liabilities. National fiat currencies are generally created in the credit process and are backed… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2016)
Letter to Investors In my travels around the country this year, meeting with clients and advisors, I’ve been struck by the high level of political passion (both optimistic and pessimistic), similar to what we see both in the political arena and in the media. Inevitably, I’m asked what I think about it all. “Who do… Read More »