Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act (June 13, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady In February, President Obama signed the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act, a broad refresh of U.S. trade laws. Title VII of this law concerns exchange rate and economic policies. The earlier law, passed in 1988, required the Treasury Department to determine if a nation was “manipulating” its exchange rate. If a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 10, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our asset allocation process, we focus on cyclical trends—trends that tend to have three- to five-year time horizons. Two examples of these sorts of trends are the business cycle and the monetary policy cycle. Although both cycles can last longer or less than three to five years, in general, these types… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Tragedy of Venezuela (June 6, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The decline in oil prices has been a major problem for oil-exporting nations. In general, the degree of disruption is mostly based on how well the country was run before oil prices plunged. Venezuela has arguably been the worst run of the major oil producers. The late President Hugo Chavez built an… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 3, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The prolonged weakness seen in capital spending is a concern for the economy and equity markets. This chart shows the yearly change in the three-month smoothed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft. The Census Bureau changed how it calculates this series in 1992; we have overlapped the yearly change in the earlier… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 27, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee As promised, this week we will discuss how President Clinton’s policies would likely affect the financial markets. It should be noted that, unlike Mr. Trump, Sen. Clinton has published most of her policy positions. However, there have been apparent shifts in her policy positions as Clinton adjusts her campaign to react to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Sykes-Picot: 100 Years Later (May 23, 2016)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Last week marked the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which divided the disintegrating Ottoman Empire territories in the Middle East into British-controlled and French-controlled areas following WWI. One hundred years after the agreement, the effects of the borders established by these European powers continue to reverberate as the region remains unstable. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 20, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee As promised, this week we will discuss how President Trump’s policies would likely affect the financial markets. It should be noted that Mr. Trump has not published any clear policy papers, so our descriptions are based on his public comments. Next week, we will discuss the expected policies and financial market effects… Read More »
