Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 3, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee The prolonged weakness seen in capital spending is a concern for the economy and equity markets. This chart shows the yearly change in the three-month smoothed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft. The Census Bureau changed how it calculates this series in 1992; we have overlapped the yearly change in the earlier… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 27, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee As promised, this week we will discuss how President Clinton’s policies would likely affect the financial markets. It should be noted that, unlike Mr. Trump, Sen. Clinton has published most of her policy positions. However, there have been apparent shifts in her policy positions as Clinton adjusts her campaign to react to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Sykes-Picot: 100 Years Later (May 23, 2016)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Last week marked the 100th anniversary of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which divided the disintegrating Ottoman Empire territories in the Middle East into British-controlled and French-controlled areas following WWI. One hundred years after the agreement, the effects of the borders established by these European powers continue to reverberate as the region remains unstable. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 20, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee As promised, this week we will discuss how President Trump’s policies would likely affect the financial markets. It should be noted that Mr. Trump has not published any clear policy papers, so our descriptions are based on his public comments. Next week, we will discuss the expected policies and financial market effects… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of Helicopter Money: Part 3 (May 16, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we described the process of “monetary funded fiscal spending” (MFFS), including a discussion of why it might be implemented, how it would work and the potential problems that could come with using it. Last week, we examined two historical examples where forms of MFFS were implemented, Japan in the 1930s… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 13, 2016)
by Asset Allocation Committee With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton becoming the presumptive nominees for the Republican and Democratic Parties, respectively, this week’s Asset Allocation Weekly will offer some of our initial thoughts on this election cycle. We will offer more in-depth analysis in the coming months but these highlights express our starting points about the… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (May 10, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Oil prices have rallied since mid-February and are now back into the price range established last autumn. Oil Prices and Inventories Inventory levels remain elevated but should begin their seasonal decline later this month. In fact, working commercial storage hit an all-time high in April, exceeding the levels reached during… Read More »