Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 5, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we discussed how equity markets, because of their anticipatory nature, tend to bottom in advance of the end of recessions. Assuming that condition continues, if our expectations for a short recession (but probably a long recovery) are correct, it would make sense that the equity market would have already bottomed. … Read More »
Daily Comment (June 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Our newest podcast episode, “The Long-Term Effects of COVID-19,” is available. In this episode, we discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic will likely accelerate the reversal of the equality/efficiency cycle toward equality. Good morning and happy employment Friday! We go into the details… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning. It’s ECB day! The ECB continues to support the EU economy. It’s June 4, the 31st anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Massacre; we note China is playing up the current U.S. civil unrest as a counterpoint to Beijing’s actions in… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (June 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market continues to recover after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories surprised the markets for the fourth straight week with stockpiles falling 2.1 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.0 mb build. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Our newest podcast episode, “The Long-Term Effects of COVID-19,” is available. We continue to build on themes discussed in the previous episode, “The Lessons of History,” in which we examined the effects of earlier pandemics. In this episode, we discuss how the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 2, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The general uptrend in risk assets continues to stem mostly from the gradual easing of coronavirus lockdowns and progress on vaccines and treatments. Today’s market action also reflects signs that the major oil-producing countries will extend their production cuts, which has boosted… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part II (June 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In this five-part series on the geopolitics of the 2020 election, we have broken the reports into nine sections. In Part I, we covered the basics of public finance. This week, we will cover the second and third sections, understanding the electorate and party coalitions. Understanding the Electorate Understanding the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning. It’s Monday and the beginning of another month. Global equities are mixed this morning, although we do note the Hang Seng rallied. Over the weekend, civil disorder occurred around the U.S. We discuss the latest with China. The G-7 was… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 29, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent strong rally in equities has befuddled investors—how can equities rally with such vigor when the economy is historically weak? We suspect there are two reasons for this recovery: Although the drop in economic activity is deep, it will likely be short. Supportive monetary policy is a powerful elixir for equities.… Read More »