Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part III (May 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we discussed Scheidel’s thesis on the events that reverse the normal trend of inequality and used this analysis to frame the COVID-19 pandemic. In Part II, we introduced the equality/ efficiency cycle and discussed the first issue that would be affected by a shift to equality. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s employment week; we are expecting a very weak report for April, with the unemployment rate in the 16% area. Equity futures are lower. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number of reported cases is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 1, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The policy response to COVID-19 has been mostly favorable for gold. Our gold model uses the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the EUR/USD exchange rate, and the real two-year T-note yield. The only variable that has been bearish for gold is the dollar, but the massive… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning, happy Friday and happy May Day, the international celebration of Labor Day. Most European financial markets will be closed, although Denmark and the U.K. remain open. Equity futures are lower as tensions with China rise, while oil is rallying again. … Read More »
Daily Comment (April 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning as another month, that feels like a year, comes to a close. Just a reminder—tomorrow is May Day, the international celebration of Labor Day. Most European financial markets will be closed, although Denmark and the U.K. will remain open. The… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market is showing signs of trying to consolidate in the mid-teens. Oil prices continue to be affected by ETPs. The most popular ETP for crude oil, the United States Oil Fund, (USO, 17.91), has changed its… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The uptick in the markets today comes as coronavirus lockdowns continue to be softened around the world and several drug groups say they could have a COVID-19 vaccine within months. The Fed ends its latest policy meeting today. Overseas, it’s still a… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 28, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Market sentiment continues to get a boost from the fact that many foreign governments and various U.S. states are easing their coronavirus restrictions. As always, we review all the latest virus news below. We also provide an update on the continued mystery… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part II (April 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I, we introduced Walter Scheidel’s four horsemen and examined the impact of COVID-19 using his framework.[1] This week, we introduce the equality/ efficiency cycle and discuss the first issue that would be affected by the reversal of this cycle. COVID-19 and the Equality/Efficiency Cycle We postulate that economies pass through… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! It’s central bank week; the BOJ has spoken, while the Fed and ECB meet later this week. Equity futures are pointing to another higher opening and there are widespread reports of nations easing social distancing measures. Oil… Read More »