Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 24, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, we are watching to see how the disease will affect the economy longer term. Of course, projections of this sort are highly probabilistic; factors could and will likely emerge that could render these projections irrelevant. At the same, ignoring potential long-term consequences of the virus… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equity futures are pointing to a modestly higher opening; oil prices are also higher. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number of reported cases is 2,721,354 with 191,231 deaths and 745,605 recoveries. In the U.S.,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Ramadan begins this evening. Equities are steady this morning as financial markets digest historically weak economic data out of Europe. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to recover; we update our views on oil in this week’s Weekly Energy Update. We also… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Given the remarkable events of the past week, we are adjusting the usual format of this report. We[1] have been covering energy for over three decades and never imagined that we would see prices for actively traded futures fall into negative territory. The sharp drop in… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today is Earth Day and also Lenin’s birthday. But please don’t accuse us of implying a connection! Rather, we’re focused today on the latest coronavirus news, including the Senate’s passage of new PPP funds, and signs that oil prices may be stabilizing.… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2020)
Letter to Investors Today I write this quarterly client letter in the midst of a recession, one that three months ago I did not see coming. As noted in our January letter (and even italicized): We cannot predict the future. I suspect we have proved that by now. Successful long-term investing does not depend on… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Tuesday! Or if not “happy,” at least things are “interesting.” U.S. oil prices yesterday not only went negative, but deeply negative. As always, we discuss the coronavirus crisis and its latest implications below, along with reports of a new government in… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part I (April 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady Although we do cover current events in the Weekly Geopolitical Report, we also try to anticipate changes that may be a consequence of current situations. The COVID-19 crisis is just such an occasion. We regularly update the current path of the virus in our Daily Comment, but we will consider the longer-term… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! Equities are lower this morning, but the market catching most of the attention is oil. In equities, there is a large short position developing against the S&P 500. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details:… Read More »