Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2020)
The prospect of a recession in the U.S. is nearly a foregone conclusion. The depth will likely be severe, but the duration could be brief. Actions over the past two weeks by the U.S. Federal Reserve should help mitigate the economic crisis, potentially avoiding problems faced in past downturns. The stimulus package signed into law… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 31, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As March draws to a close today, we’re reminded of the old adage about the month: in like a lion, out like a lamb. After what we’ve all gone through during the last month, we certainly hope for a day that’s as… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Could the Coronavirus Pandemic Break Up the EU? – Part I (March 30, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In times of crisis, the future is a luxury. Or, at least, thinking about the future can seem like a luxury, especially if you’re reeling from the death of a loved one, the loss of a job, the devastation of a retirement portfolio, or just the boredom and isolation of a… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! Before we begin, we want to note a correction from our Friday comment; we erroneously reported the NHL had cancelled its season.[1] That wasn’t true, and we apologize for any confusion. Global equities are lower and oil… Read More »
2020 Outlook Update #2: Storm Warning (March 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF We have been updating our 2020 Outlook to keep you informed of our thoughts as conditions evolve. We have refreshed some of the charts from our update last week and added new comments, included below in bold. Update #2: March 27, 2020 | Update #1: March 16,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 27, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee We continue to monitor the path of the economy and markets as our expectations for a recession loom. This week we will update our S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2020. We use two components to build our forecast for S&P per share earnings. First, we need to estimate GDP. Normally, we use… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday as we wrap up another long week. After three days of vigorous equity rallies, we are taking a breather this morning. We update all the COVID-19 news. Venezuela’s president is indicted. Israel has a new unity government. Here are the… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The long-awaited initial claims data is out; we offer details below, but claims rose a record 3.28 mm. After a two-day respite, equities have turned lower. As we note below, the Senate has passed a $2.0 trillion spending package. As usual, we… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 26, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 1.6 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 13.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.5 mbpd, while imports declined 0.4 mbpd. The inventory build was less than forecast due to a… Read More »