Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Renewed Fighting in Idlib (March 16, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA When financial markets get caught up in a crisis like the ongoing coronavirus panic, one underappreciated risk for investors is that they can get too distracted to notice other, longer-term problems that might be brewing. That’s why we take such a disciplined approach to monitoring geopolitical, economic, social and market events… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (March 16, 2020)
Letter to Investors The last three weeks of financial market turbulence have been among the most harrowing I’ve ever seen. To my memory it’s been a combination of October 1987 and October 2008, two months I’d prefer to forget. While the stock market was dropping sharply and quickly, U.S. Treasury bonds were soaring almost as… Read More »
2020 Outlook Update: Storm Warning (March 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary—High Probability of Recession: The economy is facing three simultaneous problems: A public health crisis—COVID-19 and the economic impact of containing it; An oil price war and a regional economic slump; Rapidly rising financial stress caused by (a) and (b) along with underlying unresolved issues. We estimate… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It has been a very busy three days. We update the COVID-19 news. Risk assets reacted favorably to Friday’s press conference at the White House. However, we are not seeing any follow-through today; global equities are lower and bond yields are down… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 13, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Our baseline position has been that the COVID-19 virus would have a significant impact in terms of magnitude but be of limited duration and thus would probably not put the economy into recession. Over the past week, two events have occurred which put this position into question. The first is the oil… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday the 13th! Let’s not bury the lede—equities are enjoying a strong recovery this morning after a historic decline yesterday. Europe is lifting as well. As is our usual practice, we update news on COVID-19. We also discuss how the virus… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Welcome to the bear market. The Dow Jones Industrials entered a bear market yesterday and the other two major indices, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, will certainly enter bear market territory on the open. We cover COVID-19 this morning. The ECB… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 7.7 mb compared to the forecast rise of 1.7 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 13.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.7 mbpd, while imports rose 0.2 mbpd. The inventory build was more than forecast due to falling… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] On this day in 1918, the first cases of Spanish influenza were reported in Ft. Riley, Kansas. How ironic it is that we’re now dealing with another big epidemic, though there is still no indication that it will be a mass killer… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Tuesday! The markets are looking better than yesterday, largely based on signs that the White House has swung behind the idea of significant fiscal measures to offset the negative impact of the COVID-19 panic. We update the latest news on the… Read More »