Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 31, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last week, we updated our thoughts about a melt-up in equity markets. We observed that retail flows had diverged from equity market performance and noted that if sentiment shifts and retail investors come into equities, the market could rise rapidly to levels that may not be sustainable. This week, we are dealing… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 31, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Super Bowl Friday! It’s also Brexit Day. We update the latest on the Coronavirus. Eurozone GDP comes in weak. Global equities continue to lose ground. Abe appoints a new member to the BOJ. More movement on global tech taxes. Here are… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s GDP Thursday! We cover the data in detail below but the report came in at 2.0% which was close to forecast. Risk-off returns as global equity markets slump. We update the latest on the Coronavirus. The BOE surprises; the Fed does… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] BREAKING: Houthi rebels claim they launched a drone and missile attack on Saudi oil facilities; oil prices have rallied on the news. It’s FOMC Day! As we noted yesterday, we don’t expect much from the statement, but the press conference could be… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2020)
Letter to Investors You don’t need me to tell you this, but 2019 was an unusually good year for the public financial markets. Virtually every market rebounded nicely from the sharp sell-offs that occurred in late 2018. How broad was the advance? Confluence Investment Management’s Asset Allocation team tracks 12 major asset classes globally, consisting… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 28, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Update on the coronavirus and the FOMC meeting begins today. Asian equity markets remain under pressure, but Europe and the U.S. are stabilizing. U.K. defies U.S. on Huawei (002502, CNY 2.99) Here is what we are watching this morning: Coronavirus: The infection… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China “Phase One” Trade Deal: Part I (January 27, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA After months of negotiations, the U.S. and China signed “Phase One” of what is expected to be a multiple-phase trade deal. After noting media response to the agreement, we were struck by the dismissive consensus narrative that has developed. Our careful review of the document seemed to suggest a much more… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity and commodity markets continue to sink on the Wuhan virus. The U.K. prepares to officially leave the EU on Friday. The Fed meets this week as it considers new tools. Italian markets get some positive news. Here is what we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 24, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the risks we noted in the 2020 Outlook: Storm Watch was the potential for a “melt-up.” On the one hand, seeing a parabolic rise in equities seems like a positive. On the other, a rise of significant magnitude only occurs because of a surge of late buyers; these latecomers usually… Read More »