Research & News
Daily Comment (January 2, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The fifth episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast has been posted. “Arriving at Decisions” examines the issues that surround making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Happy New Year everyone! Global equities began 2020 with a bang, as markets responded favorably to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 20, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This is our last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2019. The next edition will be published January 10, 2020.) Did the Fed engineer a soft landing? That is the critical question for 2020. If the Fed, through its rate cuts last year,[1] has rescued the economy, it would be one of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] N.B. A couple of items. First, the Daily Comment will go on hiatus from Dec. 23, 2019, to Jan. 1, 2020. Publication will resume on Jan. 2, 2020. Second, the fifth episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast has been posted. “Arriving… Read More »
2020 Outlook: Storm Watch (December 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary – The Base Case: Economy grows at 1.5%; consumption has become the primary driver of growth. Expansion continues to set new records for duration; no recession is our base case in 2020, although there are increasing risks of a downturn. Core inflation max is 2.5% next… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] N.B. A couple of items. First, the Daily Comment will go on hiatus from Dec. 23, 2019 to Jan. 1, 2020. Publication will resume on Jan. 2, 2020. Second, the fifth episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast has been posted. “Arriving… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Good morning, all. So far, the overnight news has been relatively mum as fears of an ongoing trade war appear to be dissipating. Meanwhile, rising concerns of a “hard” Brexit have weighed on the pound. Below are the stories we will be… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (December 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady The Oil Market Since June, oil prices have held mostly within a range of $50 to $60 per barrel. After a sharp decline in prices from late May into early June, due in part to a contra-seasonal build in inventories, inventories fell and oil prices rebounded. Rising tensions with Iran added to… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Good morning from snowy St. Louis! It’s a relatively quiet morning, but there are some developments to note. It turns out the risk of a hard Brexit hasn’t entirely been eliminated, and French unions are threatening to play the Grinch for Christmas. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2020 Geopolitical Outlook (December 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (This is the last report for 2019; the next report will be published January 13, 2020.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues… Read More »