Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 22, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on December 6.) The health of the consumer is critical to the future path of economic growth. For the most part, consumption is accounting for most of the growth in the economy. This chart shows the four-quarter average of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. Happy Friday! It’s a slow news day this morning. Financial markets are rather calm. We cover the global PMI data in the foreign section. Here is what caught our attention this… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. Financial markets this morning can best be described as “becalmed.” Not much is moving We cover the Fed minutes and the recent gyrations with trade. OECD downgrades 2020 growth. Yesterday’s energy… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. It’s a risk-off morning at mid-week. There are three items of note in the overnight news. First, the Senate has passed the Hong Kong democracy bill. Second, the debate between Johnson… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. It’s rather quiet this morning with a modest risk-on tone to the markets. Yesterday, on the other hand, was active. Trump and Powell met. The government might shut down due to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part II (November 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on Dec. 2.) In Part I of this report, we presented the first two of four ideas about the post-Cold War era and how well they fared. This week, we will cover the remaining two ideas and conclude with market ramifications.… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. Happy Monday! U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning on hopeful trade talk. PBOC eases. Hong Kong unrest intensifies. Iran also facing unrest. Lebanon flirting with banking crisis. Here are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 15, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The yield curve has steepened since the FOMC started cutting rates, raising hope that a recession can be avoided. In this report, we will examine whether these hopes make sense. The above chart shows two recession indicators from two different regional Federal Reserve banks, Atlanta and New York. The former is a… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning. Lots of data today (see below). Some optimism on trade. Hong Kong is still very tense. Debt is on the rise. Here are… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Episode #3 of our Confluence of Ideas podcast is now available. Hong Kong is deteriorating rapidly. Trade talks continue, but friction is emerging. Global economic data was ‘meh.’ Powell follows up his Congressional testimony today. Worries about disease. Here are all the… Read More »