Research & News
Daily Comment (October 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The EU and the PM Johnson have a deal. Trade news continues. Interesting items emerging from the financial markets. Here are the details: Brexit: In the wee small hours of the morning (at least in the U.S.), EU and U.K. negotiators made… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2019)
The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are expected to continue their accommodative postures, especially considering issues stemming from trade impediments. While we retain a relatively sanguine view of the U.S. economy over our three-year cyclical forecast period, we recognize there is increased potential for an economic downturn. Each strategy reflects a more neutral… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The IMF gives details on weakening global growth. Brexit is at a crossroads. Trade tensions with China remain. Update on Syria. The National League has its pennant winner; the Cardinals, meanwhile, have much in common with private equity. The latter spent billions… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Commercial bankers come back to work today. The Middle East is a mess, but oil prices haven’t budged. There was little progress on Brexit, but hope remains. The Chinese trade deal continues to hit snags; China also released a batch of economic… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part I (October 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In our 2018 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook we opened the report with an analysis of America’s evolving hegemony. We noted that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism. This factor united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role. However, embedded in that commitment to contain communism was the “freezing” of three… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Columbus Day! Treasury markets are closed but equity exchanges are open. Today looks like a “upon further review day” as markets reverse Friday’s optimism. Here are some of the details: Trade: After touting the progress made on Friday, the mood has… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 11, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The financial markets have been roiled recently by the apparent shortage of liquidity in the repo markets. Our take is that the problem is twofold—there are regulatory problems that mean the banking system requires more in reserves than it did prior to the Great Financial Crisis, and there are likely industry concentration… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s a day starting with great optimism. It appears that a mini-trade deal may have been struck with China. There seems to be progress on Brexit. On the darker side, an Iranian oil tanker was struck by missiles in the… Read More »