Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 20, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Interest rates have increased since early September. The 10-year T-note yield dipped to 1.45% in early September but has risen strongly since then. What has prompted this rise? Some of the rise appears to be caused by a revaluation of the path of monetary policy. The chart on the left shows the… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are generally higher this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is up 0.4% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 closed up 0.1%. Chinese markets were higher, with the Shanghai composite up 0.2% and the Shenzhen index… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting turned out hawkish. Other central banks were active today. Trade negotiators from China begin talks in the U.S. today. Here is what we are watching this morning: Hawkish Fed: The FOMC did cut rates by 25 bps but nearly… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are stable this morning after a wild day in the overnight lending market. The Israeli elections did not yield a clear result. The FOMC meeting concludes today. Here is what we are watching this morning: The funding problem: We have received… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a wild day yesterday, markets are rather quiet. The FOMC meeting starts today, the new Saudi energy minister is conducting his first press conference at 1:15, and Israel is holding elections. Here is what we are watching this morning: The aftermath… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Weaponizing the Dollar: The Nuclear Option, Part I (September 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Last month, we wrote a two-part report on weaponizing the dollar.[1] The continued strength of the dollar has become newsworthy recently, prompting us to provide an update to those earlier reports and include an analysis of groundbreaking new legislation that was introduced in the Senate. In Part I of this report, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed week, but the big news is that financial and oil markets are roiled by an attack on Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) oil infrastructure. Here is what we are watching this morning: The attack of the Houthis? Houthis in Yemen have claimed… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 13, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In recent reports, we have discussed the yield curve and its value in signaling the business cycle. One of the problems for investors with using the various permutations of the yield curve as a signaling device is that it gives such early warnings that it may not be all that useful. This… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s a quiet morning with equities continuing to lift on trade hopes. Should we be worried about inflation? The day after the ECB. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade: It looks like an “off ramp” may be… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The ECB delivers. The U.S. is delaying tariffs on China. Here is what we are watching this morning: The ECB: In the statement, the ECB restarted QE to the tune of €20 billion per month and cut deposit rates to -50 bps. … Read More »