Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (April 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Given the remarkable events of the past week, we are adjusting the usual format of this report. We[1] have been covering energy for over three decades and never imagined that we would see prices for actively traded futures fall into negative territory. The sharp drop in… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today is Earth Day and also Lenin’s birthday. But please don’t accuse us of implying a connection! Rather, we’re focused today on the latest coronavirus news, including the Senate’s passage of new PPP funds, and signs that oil prices may be stabilizing.… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (April 2020)
Letter to Investors Today I write this quarterly client letter in the midst of a recession, one that three months ago I did not see coming. As noted in our January letter (and even italicized): We cannot predict the future. I suspect we have proved that by now. Successful long-term investing does not depend on… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Tuesday! Or if not “happy,” at least things are “interesting.” U.S. oil prices yesterday not only went negative, but deeply negative. As always, we discuss the coronavirus crisis and its latest implications below, along with reports of a new government in… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part I (April 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady Although we do cover current events in the Weekly Geopolitical Report, we also try to anticipate changes that may be a consequence of current situations. The COVID-19 crisis is just such an occasion. We regularly update the current path of the virus in our Daily Comment, but we will consider the longer-term… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! Equities are lower this morning, but the market catching most of the attention is oil. In equities, there is a large short position developing against the S&P 500. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details:… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 17, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve’s aggressive expansion of its balance sheet has been in response to fears of systemic risk. The experience of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis has made it clear that systemic risk can occur from a myriad of different parts of the financial system, so the Fed has broadened its support… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Friday! Equities are rebounding this morning on a positive drug trial. China’s GDP turns negative. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number of reported cases is 2,169,022 with 146,071 deaths and 522,264 (yes,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equities are rebounding this morning. We update the COVID-19 news and initial claims. The Weekly Energy Update is available. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number of reported cases is 2,076,015 with 138,000 deaths and 522,881 recoveries. Here is the… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 19.2 mb compared to the forecast rise of 11.6 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 12.3 mbpd. Exports rose 0.6 mbpd, while imports declined 0.2 mbpd. Refining activity fell 6.5%, well more than the 2.2% decline… Read More »