Research & News
Daily Comment (September 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It is 9/11, the 18th anniversary of the terrorist attack on New York and Washington. Equity markets are mostly steady this morning. We are rotating in equities. China gives in (a little) on trade. Bolton’s out. Here is what we are watching… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equity markets are a bit lower this morning, although there is a huge amount of rotation in the sectors. Chinese inflation data was mixed. Parliament is prorogued. Here is what we are watching this morning: Is the ECB set to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Kashmir Sweater (September 9, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Since coming to power in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown a penchant for using surprise to launch new policies. In 2016, for example, his government announced a sudden replacement of large-denomination bank notes to fight crime and curtail the shadow economy. Modi’s latest shocker came early last month,… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Global equity markets are edging higher this morning. China’s economic data was a bit soft. Russian local elections were a rebuke of Putin. The Brexit saga continues in Ireland. Here is what we are watching this morning: Russia: In Moscow’s… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 6, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment data Friday! We cover the data in detail below but here is the snapshot—it was mixed. The payroll report was soft, but wage growth and the household survey were rather strong. Financial markets are taking the report as weak, focusing… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trade optimism is lifting risk assets; equities are up, while gold, the dollar and Treasuries are down. Here are the details and other items we are watching: An observation: One of the most difficult tasks humans face is trying to deal with… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday was busy; the ISM manufacturing data disappointed and there was lots of Brexit news. Here are the details and other items we are watching: Boris’s terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad day: PM Johnson had a rough day yesterday. First, his government… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back! Three-day weekends are great, but now we get to pile five days of work into four! Trade worries continue to weigh on risk assets. Brexit appears to be reaching some sort of resolution. Hurricane Dorian dominated the weekend news flow.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 30, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee As various permutations of the yield curve invert, projections of recession are increasing. One of our favorites, the 10-year T-note/fed funds yield curve, has been inverted for three months. This chart shows the history of this yield curve; since 1960, every recession was preceded by an inversion of this indicator. However, that… Read More »