Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 20, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee During the recent market tumult, gold has performed rather well, until lately. This chart shows the nearest gold futures contract over the past year. From mid-January, when reports of COVID-19 began to circulate, gold prices marched steadily higher, making an intraday high of $1,704.30. Since then, this has declined by over $250… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Good morning and happy Friday! “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” This quote, misappropriated to Lenin, seems to capture much of how things feel right now. It’s a “green screen day” with equity futures rebounding… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Today is the spring equinox; it’s hard to say if this is a good or bad omen. We update COVID-19 news. Although there is much to say about the financial markets, to some extent, it can be summed up succinctly—there is a… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 19, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 2.0 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.5 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.1 mbpd to 13.1 mbpd. Exports rose 1.0 mbpd, while imports rose 0.1 mbpd. The inventory build was less than forecast due to the… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 18, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Well, it’s Wednesday, and we face another day right out of a post-apocalyptic zombie movie. While there is still no sign of zombie armies marching on Washington, there is a more worrying sign that global financial markets are seizing up in a… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy St. Patrick’s Day! To celebrate the holiday, we think it would be great if the markets could end the day “in the green.” However, much will depend on news flow related to the COVID-19 “black swan.” With so many fast-moving developments,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Renewed Fighting in Idlib (March 16, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA When financial markets get caught up in a crisis like the ongoing coronavirus panic, one underappreciated risk for investors is that they can get too distracted to notice other, longer-term problems that might be brewing. That’s why we take such a disciplined approach to monitoring geopolitical, economic, social and market events… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (March 16, 2020)
Letter to Investors The last three weeks of financial market turbulence have been among the most harrowing I’ve ever seen. To my memory it’s been a combination of October 1987 and October 2008, two months I’d prefer to forget. While the stock market was dropping sharply and quickly, U.S. Treasury bonds were soaring almost as… Read More »
2020 Outlook Update: Storm Warning (March 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary—High Probability of Recession: The economy is facing three simultaneous problems: A public health crisis—COVID-19 and the economic impact of containing it; An oil price war and a regional economic slump; Rapidly rising financial stress caused by (a) and (b) along with underlying unresolved issues. We estimate… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It has been a very busy three days. We update the COVID-19 news. Risk assets reacted favorably to Friday’s press conference at the White House. However, we are not seeing any follow-through today; global equities are lower and bond yields are down… Read More »