Research & News
Daily Comment (July 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Mueller testifies today; we mistakenly expected it yesterday. Although the testimony will be the focus of the media, it probably won’t move the financial markets. Here is what we are watching: Trade optimism: Equity markets rallied yesterday on news that… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (July 2019)
Letter to Investors I’m writing to you at the end of a week in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 27,000 for the first time ever and in which the S&P 500 crossed 3,000 for the first time ever. There’s something about these market averages reaching “all-time highs” that increases fears in the hearts… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! There are two big items today. As expected, Boris Johnson is now the new PM of the U.K. The IMF has lowered its global growth forecasts due to trade disruptions. And, Mueller testifies today. Here is what we are watching:… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part I (July 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In mid-August 2016, I published a two-part series titled “Thinking about Thinking” (see Part I and II). Occasionally, I will be asked which WGR is my favorite or most important. I generally refer readers to the aforementioned reports. One facet of that report is the three statements of knowledge—a priori analytic statements, a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s going to be a busy week. The media will be mostly distracted with Mueller’s testimony. Boris Johnson is set to become PM on Tuesday. The ECB meets on Thursday with an outside chance of a rate cut. China’s version… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 19, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In his last testimony to Congress, Chair Powell agreed with Representative Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) that the relationship between unemployment and inflation appears to have been broken. This relationship, usually referred to as the Phillips Curve, suggests there is an inverse relationship between the two variables. If one desires low inflation, then the tradeoff… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Fifty years ago today, Apollo 11 orbited the dark side of the moon as a precursor to the landing. In market news, it is still all about monetary policy. Tensions with Iran are rising. Here is what we are watching… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are trading lower this morning as worries over earnings are pressuring prices. Japan fell on weak export data and the Bank of Korea surprised with a rate cut. Here is what we are watching today: Fed talk: Perhaps the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2019)
We maintain our sanguine view of the economy and markets, though it is more guarded than last quarter. We expect the Federal Reserve to implement easier policy in the third quarter, marking its first rate reduction since 2008. In the absence of a recession, which is not in our forecast, the rate reduction should lead… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global markets are trading quietly this morning, consistent with mid-summer. Here is what we are watching today: The EU vote: Well, she won, but it was close. Ursula von der Leyen received 383 votes, marginally more than the 374 she needed to… Read More »