Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 13, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Our baseline position has been that the COVID-19 virus would have a significant impact in terms of magnitude but be of limited duration and thus would probably not put the economy into recession. Over the past week, two events have occurred which put this position into question. The first is the oil… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday the 13th! Let’s not bury the lede—equities are enjoying a strong recovery this morning after a historic decline yesterday. Europe is lifting as well. As is our usual practice, we update news on COVID-19. We also discuss how the virus… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Welcome to the bear market. The Dow Jones Industrials entered a bear market yesterday and the other two major indices, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, will certainly enter bear market territory on the open. We cover COVID-19 this morning. The ECB… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 7.7 mb compared to the forecast rise of 1.7 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd to 13.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.7 mbpd, while imports rose 0.2 mbpd. The inventory build was more than forecast due to falling… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] On this day in 1918, the first cases of Spanish influenza were reported in Ft. Riley, Kansas. How ironic it is that we’re now dealing with another big epidemic, though there is still no indication that it will be a mass killer… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Tuesday! The markets are looking better than yesterday, largely based on signs that the White House has swung behind the idea of significant fiscal measures to offset the negative impact of the COVID-19 panic. We update the latest news on the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – On Pandemics (March 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady Since January, the world has been dealing with the COVID-19 virus, a new coronavirus that has been spreading around the world. Because this situation is still evolving, it is too early to determine the overall impact of this specific virus. We update our views on COVID-19 regularly in our Daily Comment report.… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equities suffered a deep slide overnight; equity futures fell to limit down levels, so we are not sure how far they will decline on the open. The 30-year Treasury yield broke 1% and the 10-year T-note has fallen below 50 bps. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 6, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee In the turmoil caused by COVID-19, fixed income has performed remarkably well. Ten-year T-note yields have declined to record lows and, as we will show below, there is no evidence of severe stress in the credit markets. First, here is what we are seeing in Treasuries. This chart shows our 10-year T-note… Read More »