Research & News
Daily Comment (March 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Thursday! After a strong equity market rally yesterday, which lifted stocks in Asia overnight, Europe turned lower and U.S. equity futures are also falling. We update COVID-19 news. The U.S. won a battle with China over global regulation. Turkey and Russia… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (March 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 0.8 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production rose 0.1 mbpd to a new record of 13.1 mbpd. Exports rose 0.5 mbpd, while imports were unchanged. The inventory build was less than forecast… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After yesterday’s wild rollercoaster ride in the markets, we’re looking for a happier Wednesday. We provide an update to the COVID-19 panic and the confusing policy responses, as well as a recap of yesterday’s Super Tuesday primaries. On a less positive note,… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Super Tuesday! By late this evening, we should have a better sense of who is really competitive in the Democrats’ race for a presidential candidate. In the meantime, the COVID-19 virus remains in the spotlight. We provide our usual update and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part III (March 2, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends. The report discussed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, with a potentially huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 2, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s March! February seemed unusually long this year. There is lots of news this morning. We are seeing some signs of equity market stabilization, but risk-off markets are also doing really well. We update the COVID-19, including China’s PMI data (quick update—it… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 28, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Since the end of the Financial Crisis, there has been a steady deterioration in investment-grade credit quality. This chart shows the percentage of investment-grade bonds rated at BBB. Since late 2018, this portion has represented half of outstanding investment-grade credit. This rating is the lowest end of investment-grade credit, so the dominance… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 28, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equity markets around the world continue to spiral lower. Turkey and Syria are on the brink of war and Europe may face another refugee crisis in the midst of COVID-19. U.K. talks tough on trade. Here are the details: COVID-19: There are… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity markets are down again due to the continued spread of COVID-19. U.S. futures are down this morning. We update the latest on the virus, including some thoughts about the Fed’s reaction function. Despite everything, U.S. housing data is looking remarkably… Read More »