Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 14, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The data on U.S. residential real estate has been improving in recent months. Housing tends to have an outsized effect on the economy. Not only do housing purchases trigger follow-on buying of consumer durable goods (e.g., furniture and furnishings, etc.) but non-durables as well (e.g., basic household items). A house is an… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday and St. Valentines Day! It’s rather quiet in the financial markets, with bonds doing well and equities grinding higher. We update news on COVID-19. There is unrest in Colombia, and more legal action on Huawei (002502, CNY 2.61). We have… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] After a steady rise, equities are lower this morning following a jump in reported infections; we update news on COVID-19. The nominating process for the remaining two vacant governor positions begins today. PM Johnson shakes up his cabinet. The CDU/CSU begins the… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a rather quiet Wednesday as global equity markets continue their steady rise. We have an update on the COVID-19 virus (it now has an official name), along with some disquieting data from JOLTS and headlines about consumer debt. The EU fires… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity markets continue to grind higher. We have an update on the Wuhan virus. Chair Powell goes to Capitol Hill today and tomorrow. The New Hampshire primary is underway. News on Brexit. The conflict in Syria continues. The Philippines ends a… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part I (February 10, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Note: Due to the President’s Day holiday, our next report will be published on February 24.) In the 1960s and 1970s, people worried a lot about rapid population growth. According to the United Nations, the world’s population was growing at an average annual rate of more than 1.9% during those decades,… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday! Global equity markets are flat to down as the world continues to deal with the Wuhan virus. China officially returns from the New Year’s holiday, but it looks like a slow restart, and China’s inflation rises. There is political turmoil… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 7, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Commerce Department recently released its first iteration of Q4 GDP. The overall growth rate, at 2.1%, was mostly on forecast but the composition of the growth showed some unexpected developments. In this week’s report, we will examine the most interesting changes and what it may be telling us about future economic… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 7, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s employment Friday! We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that the data did come in a bit better than forecast. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has conducted benchmark revisions and the changes suggest the labor… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The rally in equities continues. An update on the Wuhan virus. Good news on trade. Potentially important developments in Germany. Brazil cuts the policy rate. Update on the weekly energy data. Here are the details: Wuhan virus: Although it is clear that… Read More »