Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Independence Day holiday and a short summer hiatus, the next report will be published July 15.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] NB: Our strategy team is expanding! Patrick Fearon-Hernandez has joined our firm as Market Strategist. He comes to us from a broad and interesting career, including a stint at A.G. Edwards and the Central Intelligence Agency. You will be seeing his work in… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 21, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] NB: Our strategy team is expanding! Patrick Fearon-Hernandez has joined our firm as Market Strategist. He comes to us from a broad and interesting career, including a stint at A.G. Edwards and the Central Intelligence Agency. You will be seeing his work in… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy post-Fed Day! It’s all bullish today; equities are higher, bond yields are lower and gold is on a tear (and the dollar is weaker). The only worry? Iran claims to have shot down a U.S. drone, sending oil higher. Here is what we are… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Juneteenth! After a wild day yesterday, all is quiet before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Here is what we are watching today: The Fed: The Fed meeting concludes today. We are expecting a hawkish tone, at least initially, from the statement and the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s a risk-on morning following a speech by ECB President Draghi. The Fed meeting starts today. Here is what we are watching today: Draghi: The Eurozone is holding meetings in Sintra, Portugal; these meetings are considered this region’s equivalent of the Jackson Hole… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – War with Iran? (June 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Over the past year, U.S. relations with Iran have deteriorated. In May 2018, President Trump announced he would withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multinational treaty that was designed to slow, but not eliminate, Iran’s nuclear development. As part of exiting the JCPOA, the U.S. reapplied sanctions that have… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Tensions remain high with Iran, and protests expanded in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, it’s central bank week, with the Federal Reserve as the headliner. Here is what we are watching today: Iran: Hawks are calling for military strikes against Iran. However, there is no… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 14, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Establishing when “the” yield curve inverts is a bit of guesswork as there are a plethora of permutations one can use to calculate the spread. One yield curve we like is the same one the Conference Board uses in its index of Leading Economic Indicators, namely, the 10-year T-note less fed funds… Read More »