Research & News
Daily Comment (June 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. President Trump’s visit to the U.K. continues today. We are seeing a bit of risk-on this morning as equities make a modest recovery. Here is what we are watching today: Fed meets in Chicago:… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rare Earths (June 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (NB: To improve readability, we are now linking references to media reports and articles directly in the text via hyperlinks. Footnoting will be reserved for documents to which we can’t link or to provide additional clarity on a topic.) Since early May, the trade tensions with China have morphed into a broader conflict. … Read More »
Daily Comment (June 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We bid welcome to June! Like the St. Louis Cardinals, we are more than happy to see May in the rearview mirror. However, like the other major league baseball team in the state, June may not be much better. POTUS is in the U.K. Trade… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 31, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee There are three factors that tend to cause recessions—inventory misadjustments, policy errors and geopolitical events. The first in the series has become less of a factor over time. Inventory management has improved dramatically since the end of WWII, and excess inventory leading to falling output has become less of an issue. Therefore,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 31, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good (?) morning! It’s ugly out there this morning; markets are in full risk-off mode, with all the flight to safety assets (yen, gold and Treasuries) rallying, while equities and commodities are falling. A surprise new tariff was announced on Mexico. Chinese data underwhelms and… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It was a quiet overnight session with some modest recovery in risk assets after the recent sell-off. The U.S. released a plethora of data this morning, which we cover in detail below. Most of Europe is closed for Ascension Thursday. Here is what… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Risk-off is dominating the financial markets this morning. Here is what we are watching: Global bonds: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are falling toward the 2.20% level and yields around the developed world continue to spin lower. Although most economic indicators continue to signal… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and welcome back from the long weekend. Although financial markets are mostly steady, there was lots of news over the holiday. Here is what we are watching: European elections: EU elections ended over the weekend and the cross-currents are complicated. Here are the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 24, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee How important have mergers, buybacks, etc. been to equity market performance? Several analysts have attempted to answer this question by focusing on buybacks alone. However, there is a more straightforward method of looking at this question and including all the factors that affect the number of shares available—the index divisor. This chart… Read More »