Research & News
Daily Comment (May 7, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning; it’s the 75th anniversary of Germany’s surrender in WWII. Despite expectations of dreadful labor market data tomorrow, equity futures continue to move higher. The BOE maintains current policy. We update the COVID-19 news. Our Weekly Energy Update can be found… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (May 7, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market is showing signs of recovery. Crude oil inventories rose 4.6 mb compared to the forecast rise of 8.0 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.2 mbpd to 11.9 mbpd. Exports rose 0.4… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today’s positive market action comes as state governments and countries around the globe continue to ease their coronavirus restrictions. Besides that, it’s also VE Day, and the beginning of National Nurses Week! We review all the virus news below, along with a… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The risk-on tenor in the markets today reflects continued scientific progress against the coronavirus and further lockdown easing across the globe, although there are also worries that the easing might come too fast and spark a second wave of infections. Below, we… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part III (May 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of this report, we discussed Scheidel’s thesis on the events that reverse the normal trend of inequality and used this analysis to frame the COVID-19 pandemic. In Part II, we introduced the equality/ efficiency cycle and discussed the first issue that would be affected by a shift to equality. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s employment week; we are expecting a very weak report for April, with the unemployment rate in the 16% area. Equity futures are lower. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number of reported cases is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 1, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee The policy response to COVID-19 has been mostly favorable for gold. Our gold model uses the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the EUR/USD exchange rate, and the real two-year T-note yield. The only variable that has been bearish for gold is the dollar, but the massive… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning, happy Friday and happy May Day, the international celebration of Labor Day. Most European financial markets will be closed, although Denmark and the U.K. remain open. Equity futures are lower as tensions with China rise, while oil is rallying again. … Read More »
Daily Comment (April 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning as another month, that feels like a year, comes to a close. Just a reminder—tomorrow is May Day, the international celebration of Labor Day. Most European financial markets will be closed, although Denmark and the U.K. will remain open. The… Read More »