Research & News
Keller Quarterly (January 2020)
Letter to Investors You don’t need me to tell you this, but 2019 was an unusually good year for the public financial markets. Virtually every market rebounded nicely from the sharp sell-offs that occurred in late 2018. How broad was the advance? Confluence Investment Management’s Asset Allocation team tracks 12 major asset classes globally, consisting… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 28, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Update on the coronavirus and the FOMC meeting begins today. Asian equity markets remain under pressure, but Europe and the U.S. are stabilizing. U.K. defies U.S. on Huawei (002502, CNY 2.99) Here is what we are watching this morning: Coronavirus: The infection… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The U.S.-China “Phase One” Trade Deal: Part I (January 27, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA After months of negotiations, the U.S. and China signed “Phase One” of what is expected to be a multiple-phase trade deal. After noting media response to the agreement, we were struck by the dismissive consensus narrative that has developed. Our careful review of the document seemed to suggest a much more… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity and commodity markets continue to sink on the Wuhan virus. The U.K. prepares to officially leave the EU on Friday. The Fed meets this week as it considers new tools. Italian markets get some positive news. Here is what we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 24, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the risks we noted in the 2020 Outlook: Storm Watch was the potential for a “melt-up.” On the one hand, seeing a parabolic rise in equities seems like a positive. On the other, a rise of significant magnitude only occurs because of a surge of late buyers; these latecomers usually… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Friday! Davos continues, and the coronavirus continues to dominate the news on the eve of the “year of the rat.” Here is what we are watching this morning: Coronavirus: The virus has now been blamed for 25 fatalities and has infected… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Davos continues, the ECB meets, but it’s the coronavirus dominating the news. The U.S. is setting its trade sights on the EU. Here is what we are watching this morning: Coronavirus: The latest death toll is 17 and the number of confirmed… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2020)
The U.S. election season and the more dovish composition of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors should ensure policy accommodation continues in the near-term. The recent resolution of trade policies with China and the prospect for finalization of USMCA produces an environment where corporate capital can be deployed with less uncertainty. Although we hold a… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Davos continues, impeachment dominates the news (but has no discernable impact on financial markets) and we continue to monitor the coronavirus. Lebanon gets a new government, Norway’s fails and Italy’s might be close to failing. Here is what we are watching this… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Davos week! World leaders in politics, business, academia and media are all gathering in Davos, Switzerland. Your Daily Comment team is skipping the event this year, remaining in picturesque downtown Webster Groves instead. It’s a risk-off market this morning as the… Read More »