Research & News
Daily Comment (November 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a quiet morning from the cold Midwest. Auto tariff delay expected. The president speaks in New York. Investment may be weakening, and imports offer a warning. Here is what we are watching this morning: Tariff delay: The decision on whether to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thirty Years Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall: A Retrospective, Part I (November 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady On August 13, 1961, the German Democratic Republic (GDR), otherwise known as East Germany, began construction on a barrier that would slow the emigration of Germans to the Federal Republic of Germany, known as West Germany. Prior to the construction of the wall, it is estimated that 3.5 million East Germans emigrated… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s Veterans’ Day; Treasury markets are closed but equities trade today. Risk assets are lower this morning. A lot of global political news. Update on trade. Here is what we are watching this morning: Global political news: There was a plethora of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 8, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve, in its Financial Accounts of the United States database,[1] has created a Distributional Financial Accounts sub-database that measures household wealth by percentile groups. The data is only reported in four broad categories (Top 1%, 90% to 99%, 50% to 89%, and bottom 50%) and has a fairly short history,… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Market action is a bit odd this morning; risk-on assets are trading lower but risk-off are weaker as well. We suspect sentiment remains high but there are some concerns about the trade details. CEOs are much more pessimistic than the population, in… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The second episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast is available! Trade optimism is lifted again this morning—risk assets are higher. The Happy Meal is 40 years old today. Trouble in techland. More on EU deposit insurance. DOE report. Here are the… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The second episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast is available! A German breakthrough? Since unification, Germany has supported the EU with certain qualifications. The primary goal, at least from the German point of view, is to prevent giving the rest of… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The second episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast is available! Optimism over trade remains elevated; equities are moving higher and safety assets, Treasuries and gold, are suffering. Here are the details: China trade: There is a lot of news on trade. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part II (November 4, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Some of Japan’s biggest economic hiccups have started with a major tax hike, so investors are wondering what will happen following a boost in the country’s value-added tax (a type of sales tax) that went into effect early last month. To lay the groundwork for understanding the VAT hike and its… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The second episode of the Confluence of Ideas podcast is available! Happy Monday! Optimism reigns—everything is awesome! Trade optimism, helpful monetary policy, decent earnings and modest economic growth are propelling U.S. equities to new highs. The Saudi Aramco IPO is on. Here… Read More »