Research & News
Daily Comment (May 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were mixed this morning as rising tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to increase, while a softening of rhetoric by the president has restored optimism for a possible trade deal between the U.S. and China. Here are the stories we are… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela: An Update, Part I (May 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady On May 10, 2018, Nicolas Maduro was reelected as president of Venezuela. However, there were numerous irregularities during the vote and, as such, the U.S. and the Organization of American States (OAS) refused to view the election as legitimate. Shortly after Maduro was officially inaugurated on January 10, 2019, the National Assembly, which… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning, all! Equities are soft this morning due to rising tensions in trade and the Middle East. Here are the stories we are watching: China responds: This morning, China decided to impose tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods starting June 1. The decision… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 10, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee While the financial industry is rife with performance comparisons to selected benchmarks, the most important investing goal for the majority of clients is a return above inflation that avoids catastrophic losses. Although beating the S&P 500 is a nice goal, solely focusing on that outcome may lead an investor to accept more… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The tariffs were applied at midnight. Here is what we are watching: China trade: As the president promised, tariffs on trade with China were applied at midnight.[1] Interestingly enough, financial markets took the news in stride, with equities up across the world…until a series of… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trade concerns remain, while tensions with Iran increase. Here is what we are watching: China trade: Although Chinese negotiators are meeting with U.S. officials today, it appears we are heading toward tariffs at midnight EDT tonight. China has vowed to retaliate.[1] In a speech (granted,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-off continues. Tensions with Iran are increasing. South Africa holds elections today. Here is what we are watching: The Iran issue: SoS Pompeo abruptly canceled a meeting with German Chancellor Merkel and made an unannounced visit to Baghdad.[1] According to reports, he made the detour… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trade tensions remain. Parsing the Iran threat. Here is what we are watching: Trade turmoil: So, is the tariff threat real or a bluff? Equity markets decided yesterday that it was more the latter than the former.[1] This morning, equity markets seem less convinced. This… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Domestic Policy and American Hegemony: Part III (May 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Part I of this report was a review of the reserve currency and the savings identity. In Part II, we showed how the Nixon and Reagan administrations used America’s hegemonic power to force some of the economic adjustment of U.S. policy onto foreign governments. This week, in the final segment of this report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday as we clear out the “tequila cobwebs” this morning! Cyclone Fani made landfall over the weekend.[1] Ramadan begins.[2] Trade turmoil returns. It’s a massive risk-off day so far. Here is what we are watching: Trade turmoil: On Sunday afternoon, President Trump tweeted that,… Read More »