Research & News
Keller Quarterly (April 2019)
Letter to Investors The last half-year has demonstrated the day-to-day inscrutability of the financial markets, and with it the impossibility of predicting them. Suppose that last year on September 18 you had the misfortune of bumping your head and, in Rip Van Winkle fashion, fell into an unconscious slumber that lasted exactly seven months. On… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets across the world are rather quiet this morning after U.S. equity indices made new closing highs yesterday. Here is what we are watching: China trade talks: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer announced another round of meetings in Beijing next week.[1] The next… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets across the world are rather quiet this morning. Oil remains the focus. Here is what we are watching: Oil: Yesterday, the Trump administration announced that no more oil waivers will be granted on Iranian oil exports, which will tighten oil supplies. The U.S. has… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Easter Monday! Most of Europe is closed today, along with a few Asian markets (Australia, New Zealand). It’s also Earth Day. There was a horrific terror event Easter Sunday against Christians in Sri Lanka.[1] Here is what we are watching: Oil: The Trump administration… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 18, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Why is inflation so low? The persistence of low inflation, despite the long expansion and the decline in unemployment, continues to befuddle policymakers. Standard economic theory suggests there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. When the unemployment rate is low, firms should be experiencing reduced excess capacity. As capacity is… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equities are mostly flat, while we are seeing weakness abroad. The Mueller report[1] gets released this morning, so the media will be focusing on that all day. European PMI data was lackluster.[2] In a fascinating development, a Democratic Party stalwart announced he isn’t running… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2019)
The Federal Reserve shifted fully from its hawkish stance at the beginning of the year. We anticipate that the committee will maintain its newly dovish stance with the potential for further monetary accommodation. Though the employment/population ratio has improved, we find it still indicates slack in the labor force, blunting the full impact of wage… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are trending higher in a quiet trade. China’s economic data was solid. Here is what we are watching: Chinese data: GDP came in a bit better than expected, at 6.4%, but since GDP is mostly a manufactured number we expect it to always be… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are trending higher in a quiet trade. Media is focused on the tragic Notre Dame fire. Here is what we are watching: Fed talk: Chicago FRB President Evans and Boston FRB President Rosengren (both voters this year) made essentially dovish statements on monetary policy. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Domestic Policy and American Hegemony: Part I (April 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Easter holiday, our next report will be published April 29.) The dollar is the world’s reserve currency. As such, there is a constant demand for dollars from foreign countries to provide liquidity for global transactions. Because of the reserve currency status, U.S. monetary and fiscal policy affects the world economy… Read More »