Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Ukraine Under Zelensky (December 9, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Because of the congressional impeachment inquiry into President Trump, people are hearing a lot about Ukraine and its new president, Volodymyr Zelensky. However, it’s important to remember that Ukraine and its new leader are significant in their own right. Russia has been keeping Ukraine under intense geopolitical pressure for the last… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Looking for something to listen to while shopping? Episode #4 of the Confluence of Ideas Podcast is now available. It’s all about the Equality/Efficiency Cycle. Enjoy! Happy Monday! It’s a busy week, with the Fed and ECB meeting, elections in the U.K.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 6, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day Friday! We cover the data below, but the quick read is that the report was a blowout—payrolls rose much more than forecast and the unemployment rate fell. It is bullish for equities, bearish for gold and Treasuries. In other… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a “Seinfeld” equity market this morning—equity futures are advancing on nothing in particular. Tory optimism is rising. There’s a general strike in France. U.S. is worried about Iran. Here are the details: Brexit: The GBP has been steadily rising in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Yesterday, trade worries with China led to a selloff. This morning, optimism has returned and equities are higher. Protests in Iran turn increasingly deadly. Thoughts on the U.K. elections. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade: Yesterday, equity markets tumbled… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Trade worries continue to weigh on equity markets. NATO meeting starts tomorrow. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade: The trade issue is getting increasingly messy and equity markets are falling. Here are some of the issues: France and tech… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Lebanon and its “Revolution of the Millennials” (December 2, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Working at NATO Headquarters in Brussels in the 1990s was a diverse experience: my coworker was Belgian, my boss was British, his boss was French and our secretary was Turkish. But what felt especially exotic were my weekends in eastern Belgium, on the Dutch border, with my Turkish, Egyptian and Lebanese… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Welcome back! Hope all had a great holiday; it’s now December, the last month of 2019. Ursula von der Leyen finally gets to take over as head of the EU commission. It’s a modest risk-on morning. Here are the details: China: A… Read More »