Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 15, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Financial Accounts of the United States, formerly known as the Flow of Funds Report, was released last week. It is a plethora of information about the state of the economy. Below we discuss the charts we find most noteworthy. First, here is the saving balance by sector. The tax cut has… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Ides of March Friday! The National Party Congress (NPC) ended in China and New Zealand is reeling from a mass shooting. U.S. equity futures are higher. Here is what we are watching this morning: The National Party Congress: Unlike previous events, this one was… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Pi Day![1] It’s a very quiet day so far this morning. U.S. equity futures are modestly lower. Here is what we are watching: Brexit: As expected, MPs voted to avoid a no-deal Brexit, despite an 11th hour plea from the PM to vote against… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning in a quiet news environment. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: As expected, PM May’s plan failed again;[1] although the vote was closer this time, it was nowhere close to passing.[2] Today, Parliament votes… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are flat this morning after a strong run yesterday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: In an 11th hour attempt to seal a deal,[1] PM May and EU Commissioner Juncker offered statements to clarify and ease the Irish backstop… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Modern Monetary Theory: Part I (March 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In recent weeks, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become a hot topic of discussion. Given the level of controversy, we want to provide our take on the theory. One could wonder if this topic is appropriate for a geopolitical report. We are using this report to examine MMT because, in our opinion, its… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity futures are mostly higher this morning, although Dow futures are lower on the Ethiopian airlines crash.[1] Here is what we are watching this morning: Chinese trade: It appears the trade summit between China and the U.S. will likely be delayed, probably into April.[2] There… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 8, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve is experiencing a crisis of sorts. For years, policymakers have used the Phillips Curve as a guide to policy. The Phillips Curve postulates that there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Essentially, to quell inflation policymakers need to raise rates to create unemployment. The basic idea is that… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment Friday! We cover the data below but the quick read is that it’s mixed. The payroll data came in very weak (+20k vs. +180k expected). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% from 4.0% last month, and wages rose more than expected. Market reaction… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are lifting on the back of the ECB. Here is what we are watching this morning: ECB: The ECB went a bit further than expected in its statement.[1] There was no change in the policy rate but the statement indicated there will be a… Read More »