Research & News
Keller Quarterly (October 2019)
Letter to Investors I recently had the opportunity to give a talk to a large group of investment advisors, many of whom were longtime friends. Even though we knew each other well, given the times we’re in I felt compelled to begin with a two-part preamble concerning investing that I sometimes give when speaking to… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 18, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed using commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Note: After a long hiatus, we have resumed podcasting. Our new series, titled The Confluence of Ideas, begins with an overview of “Hegemonic Stability Theory” (the program title links to our podcast page). Our plan is to record a new episode about… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The EU and the PM Johnson have a deal. Trade news continues. Interesting items emerging from the financial markets. Here are the details: Brexit: In the wee small hours of the morning (at least in the U.S.), EU and U.K. negotiators made… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2019)
The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks are expected to continue their accommodative postures, especially considering issues stemming from trade impediments. While we retain a relatively sanguine view of the U.S. economy over our three-year cyclical forecast period, we recognize there is increased potential for an economic downturn. Each strategy reflects a more neutral… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The IMF gives details on weakening global growth. Brexit is at a crossroads. Trade tensions with China remain. Update on Syria. The National League has its pennant winner; the Cardinals, meanwhile, have much in common with private equity. The latter spent billions… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Commercial bankers come back to work today. The Middle East is a mess, but oil prices haven’t budged. There was little progress on Brexit, but hope remains. The Chinese trade deal continues to hit snags; China also released a batch of economic… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The End of the Carter Doctrine: Part I (October 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In our 2018 Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook we opened the report with an analysis of America’s evolving hegemony. We noted that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism. This factor united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role. However, embedded in that commitment to contain communism was the “freezing” of three… Read More »