Research & News
Daily Comment (October 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Columbus Day! Treasury markets are closed but equity exchanges are open. Today looks like a “upon further review day” as markets reverse Friday’s optimism. Here are some of the details: Trade: After touting the progress made on Friday, the mood has… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 11, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The financial markets have been roiled recently by the apparent shortage of liquidity in the repo markets. Our take is that the problem is twofold—there are regulatory problems that mean the banking system requires more in reserves than it did prior to the Great Financial Crisis, and there are likely industry concentration… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s a day starting with great optimism. It appears that a mini-trade deal may have been struck with China. There seems to be progress on Brexit. On the darker side, an Iranian oil tanker was struck by missiles in the… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As the Nationals staged a remarkable comeback to earn the right to play the Cardinals for the National League pennant, the financial markets were roiled over conflicting stories of the trade talks. Turkey threatens the EU. The EU issues an ultimatum to… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On the eve of trade talks, hopes of a thaw are boosting risk markets this morning. Powell coos. Fed minutes at 2:00. Here is what we are watching today: Trade thaw? Equity futures lifted this morning on reports that China, despite all… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are weaker this morning two days before China/U.S. trade talks. Uncertainty reigns on the Syria/Kurd issue. Brexit looms. Here are some of the details: China: There are two news items regarding China that have sent equities lower. First, the U.S. has… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part II (October 7, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA In Part I of this report, we reviewed the history of Japanese-Korean relations over the last several centuries, highlighting the Japanese invasions of Korea in the 1590s and 1890s, Japan’s assassination of a Korean queen in 1895, and Japan’s colonization of Korea from 1910 to 1945. We also showed how Japanese… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday (is it just me? Or are weekends getting shorter?)! It’s a big week—the Fed releases its minutes on Wednesday, we get CPI on Thursday and Chinese officials are in town for trade talks. Here are some of the details: China… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 4, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although the convention for measuring earnings is compared to shares, Standard and Poor’s also calculates the level of operating earnings for all the stocks in the S&P 500. The per-share value is calculated by dividing this number by the S&P divisor. The advantage of this number versus the per-share data is that… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment Friday! We cover the data below, but the quick take is that the report is mixed. The drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, a new cycle low, is impressive. However, wage growth for non-supervisory workers fell to 3.5% from… Read More »