Research & News
Daily Comment (July 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: We will publish an abbreviated report on Friday. Because of the all-important labor market data, we wanted to provide our coverage of that issue and the usual energy market update as well. Additionally, the AAW will be updated. But the headings… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing quiet financial markets this morning after a strong equity rally faded throughout the day yesterday. Hong Kong, a new threat of tariffs on the EU and the Iran nuclear violation are topping the news. Also, an apology—we forgot to… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are sharply higher in a relief rally from the G-20 meeting. Oil is up on OPEC+ news. Although it’s not exactly official yet, we are unofficially enjoying the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.[1] Here is what we are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 28, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Gold prices have been strong recently, supported by perceptions of easing monetary policy and oblique statements from the White House hinting at supporting a weaker dollar. Lower interest rates and dollar weakness are generally bullish for gold prices. Our coincident gold price model suggests the recent rally is merely “catching up” from… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity markets are higher this morning on hopes of a trade deal at this weekend’s G-20 meeting. The second leg of the first Democratic debate was held last night. Vice President Biden had a tough night; there are concerns that if Biden… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity markets are higher this morning on hopes of a trade deal at this weekend’s G-20 meeting. The first Democratic debate was held last night; although there is much analysis out in the media, keep in mind that this is like analyzing… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 26, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity markets are higher this morning after taking a tumble yesterday. Optimism on trade is lifting domestic equity futures. The Democrats start their debates tonight and Robert Mueller will publicly testify. Consumer confidence data deserves a second look. Here is what we… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a slow news day so far this morning. Lots of Fed speakers throughout the day. Here is what we are watching today: The Fed: There is a plethora of Fed speakers today (see below), including Chair Powell. We did see the president… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Independence Day holiday and a short summer hiatus, the next report will be published July 15.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is… Read More »