Research & News
Daily Comment (October 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are mostly flat this morning after two sharp down days. Johnson has a new Brexit plan. The WTO approves U.S. retaliatory tariffs against the EU. Here is what we are watching this morning: Equity worries: Equity markets have taken a… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another risk-off day so far this morning. Residual worries about the economy continue to dominate. Here is what we are watching this morning: Reviewing ISM manufacturing: As you are all aware by now, the ISM manufacturing data for September came in… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Q4! Although there is a lot of news, not much is market-moving. A poorly received bond auction in Japan has lifted bond yields around the world. Here is what we are watching this morning: China’s anniversary: China held its 70th anniversary… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Japan-South Korea Dispute: Part I (September 30, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Since early July, the financial press has been reporting on a continued trade spat between Japan and South Korea. The reports have focused on a series of tit-for-tat trade restrictions the countries have imposed on each other, which are ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s the last day of the quarter and there is a lot going on. Let’s dig in. Here is what we are watching this morning: Happy Anniversary! The Communist Party of China (CPC) will hold major celebrations this week for… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 27, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Over the past few months, we have been on “recession watch.” Our position is that the odds of a downturn are elevated but it is too soon to fully position for a downturn. The inversion of yield curves is a reliable recession warning. On the other hand, the economic data continues to… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Hurray for Friday! It has been a tumultuous week as we approach the end of Q3. Markets are generally quiet this morning. U.S. economic data was a bit soft (see below). There are two elections over the weekend, in Afghanistan and Austria.… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 26, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are rather quiet this morning. The IMF has a new leader. The head of the DNI testifies today before the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. The House testimony will be public, while the Senate will be closed. We expect the media… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good Morning. Global equity markets are under pressure this morning on sentiment concerns. Here is what we are watching: A volatile day: Yesterday was a volatile day in the financial markets as two issues dominated. The U.N. speech: President Trump’s address to… Read More »