Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part I (July 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In mid-August 2016, I published a two-part series titled “Thinking about Thinking” (see Part I and II). Occasionally, I will be asked which WGR is my favorite or most important. I generally refer readers to the aforementioned reports. One facet of that report is the three statements of knowledge—a priori analytic statements, a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It’s going to be a busy week. The media will be mostly distracted with Mueller’s testimony. Boris Johnson is set to become PM on Tuesday. The ECB meets on Thursday with an outside chance of a rate cut. China’s version… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 19, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In his last testimony to Congress, Chair Powell agreed with Representative Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) that the relationship between unemployment and inflation appears to have been broken. This relationship, usually referred to as the Phillips Curve, suggests there is an inverse relationship between the two variables. If one desires low inflation, then the tradeoff… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Fifty years ago today, Apollo 11 orbited the dark side of the moon as a precursor to the landing. In market news, it is still all about monetary policy. Tensions with Iran are rising. Here is what we are watching… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are trading lower this morning as worries over earnings are pressuring prices. Japan fell on weak export data and the Bank of Korea surprised with a rate cut. Here is what we are watching today: Fed talk: Perhaps the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2019)
We maintain our sanguine view of the economy and markets, though it is more guarded than last quarter. We expect the Federal Reserve to implement easier policy in the third quarter, marking its first rate reduction since 2008. In the absence of a recession, which is not in our forecast, the rate reduction should lead… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global markets are trading quietly this morning, consistent with mid-summer. Here is what we are watching today: The EU vote: Well, she won, but it was close. Ursula von der Leyen received 383 votes, marginally more than the 374 she needed to… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s July! The trading deadline looms in baseball and a few deals (two involving our beloved cross-state team) have already occurred. Markets, on the other hand, are very quiet. Here is what we are watching today: The EU vote: The EU Commission… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Russia’s Local Elections (July 15, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Although Russia hasn’t been in the Western news very much recently, there’s been plenty of action “under the radar” related to the country’s regional and municipal elections this fall. On September 8, governors will be elected in 16 of the country’s 85 regions, including the important city of St. Petersburg. Legislative… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! China’s GDP came in on expectations but the trend is clearly showing that growth is slowing. The EU Commission vote is this week. Global debt is growing. Tropical Storm Barry is now moving into Missouri. Here is what we are… Read More »