Research & News
Daily Comment (January 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are rising modestly this morning. Here is what we are watching: Venezuela heats up: Venezuela has been a problem for a while. Its economy and government have essentially stopped functioning. Hyperinflation has set in. There is a massive exodus of Venezuelans[1] to other parts of… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a hard drop yesterday, equities are rising modestly this morning. Here is what we are watching: The importance of trade: Equity market action on Friday and Tuesday made it abundantly clear how focused financial markets are on trade. This is a five-day chart of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back from the long weekend. Equities are in the red this morning mostly on worries about global growth. Here is what we are watching today: The IMF, global growth and Davos: The IMF has reduced its world growth forecast to 3.5% for this year (down… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 18, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets struggled in 2018; although new highs were achieved twice during the year, volatility was elevated compared to 2017. This is a chart of the CBOE VIX index, a measure of implied volatility from the equity options market. An elevated VIX means implied volatility is high, which implies a wider dispersion… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 18, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Equities are moving higher this morning. Here is what we are watching today: About those tariffs: Yesterday, equity prices were jolted higher on reports that the Trump administration was considering rolling back tariffs on China. This chart shows March S&P futures; note the jump… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are drifting lower this morning. Here is what we are watching: Brexit: After facing the largest defeat in modern Parliamentary history, PM May survived a no-confidence vote but not by a great margin.[1] We have been discussing Brexit at length, so we don’t have much… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] All eyes are on the U.K. but financial markets are coping with the uncertainty rather well. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: PM May suffered a historic defeat. It is the largest defeat in the modern era, with her margin of defeat at… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2019)
Our expectations are that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a more modest pace of 2.7% While we anticipate the current economic expansion will become the longest on record this March, the risk of a downturn rises toward the end of our three-year forecast period We expect the Fed to suspend its… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are roughly flat, giving up most of their overnight gains. Asia was higher on hopes of Chinese stimulus, but the big news is that today is Brexit Day. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: So, it all comes down to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part II (January 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the next issue of this report will be published on January 28.) In Part I of this report, we discussed the issues surrounding predicting inflection points, which are defined as reversals of long-term trends. In this week’s issue, we will examine two long-term trends that… Read More »