Research & News
Daily Comment (September 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday was busy; the ISM manufacturing data disappointed and there was lots of Brexit news. Here are the details and other items we are watching: Boris’s terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad day: PM Johnson had a rough day yesterday. First, his government… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back! Three-day weekends are great, but now we get to pile five days of work into four! Trade worries continue to weigh on risk assets. Brexit appears to be reaching some sort of resolution. Hurricane Dorian dominated the weekend news flow.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 30, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee As various permutations of the yield curve invert, projections of recession are increasing. One of our favorites, the 10-year T-note/fed funds yield curve, has been inverted for three months. This chart shows the history of this yield curve; since 1960, every recession was preceded by an inversion of this indicator. However, that… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the last business day of “cultural summer” (the autumn equinox doesn’t occur until September 23), but the summer season generally ends with Labor Day. Trade optimism continues to buoy equities. There are elections in Germany over the weekend. Hurricane Dorian is… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-on has returned on trade optimism. Italy has a government. Brexit thoughts. Fifty-year T-bonds? Here are the details and other items we are watching: China: Equity futures rebounded after China indicated that it would not retaliate against the latest U.S. tariff increases. … Read More »
Daily Comment (August 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s midweek; halfway to Labor Day weekend! Boris moves against Parliament, Parliament moves against Boris and we are reacting to the Bill Dudley op-ed. Here are the details and other items we are watching: Brexit: For the first time since 1948, PM… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (August 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady The Oil Market Since June, oil prices have held within a range of $50 to $60 per barrel. After a sharp decline in prices from late May into early June, due in part to a contra-seasonal build in inventories, inventories fell and oil prices rebounded. Rising tensions with Iran added to the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! After several days of stomach-turning gyrations, things are rather quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching: Italy: Today is the deadline day for the center-left and populist-left to try to cobble together a coalition. The news is mixed. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Boris Johnson (August 26, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Due to the Labor Day holiday, our next report will be published on September 9.) The great forest fires that consumed swaths of the West in recent years have finally revealed the danger from a century of excessive fire suppression. Humanity’s natural drive to control the environment has left forests overgrown… Read More »