Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 12, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The recent testimony from Chair Powell to Congress made it quite clear that the U.S. central bank is likely to cut rates at the end of July. For the equity markets, the key issue is whether the shift away from tightening to easing will be enough to avoid recession. If the rate… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! We’re almost to the weekend, but before we get there, we still have some important developments to keep track of. We’re seeing some potentially positive developments in the trade row between Japan and South Korea, but on the other hand,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good Morning! Equities continue to trend higher on Powell’s testimony yesterday. Trade tensions are elevated. The Persian Gulf heats up. Here is what we are watching today: Powell: The chair returns to the hill today but the second day is usually a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Other than oil, most markets were lower this morning in front of Powell’s testimony. However, in the wake of his prepared remarks, U.S. equity futures have rallied. Precious metals are up, the dollar is down and Treasuries are flat. Here… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s an “everything down day” this morning, with both risk-on and risk-off asset values lower. Most likely this is position-squaring in front of Powell’s testimony. Here is what we are watching today: Powell: There isn’t too much more to add… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! We are essentially halfway through summer, semi-officially marked by the All-Star Game, the “midsummer classic.” Trading is quiet; investors should note that activity tends to slow during the summer. Europe is essentially on holiday to some extent… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 5, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although it’s not official,[1] it appears the current expansion has reached a new record. This chart shows expansions by months since 1850. The current expansion just reached 121 months, exceeding the 1991-2001 expansion, which was previously the longest. Part of the reason this expansion has lasted so long is because economic growth… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: We are publishing an abbreviated report today. Because of the all-important labor market data, we wanted to provide our coverage of that issue and the usual energy market update as well. Additionally, the AAW will be updated. But the headings in… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: We will publish an abbreviated report on Friday. Because of the all-important labor market data, we wanted to provide our coverage of that issue and the usual energy market update as well. Additionally, the AAW will be updated. But the headings… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing quiet financial markets this morning after a strong equity rally faded throughout the day yesterday. Hong Kong, a new threat of tariffs on the EU and the Iran nuclear violation are topping the news. Also, an apology—we forgot to… Read More »