Research & News
Daily Comment (December 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: Due to tomorrow’s National Day of Mourning and the closure of financial markets and the government, we will not publish the Daily Comment tomorrow. We will return to our regular schedule on Thursday.) Good morning! The euphoria of yesterday has dissipated to some degree. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part II (December 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I, we examined the basic role of the hegemon and the unique model the U.S. has created, which we dubbed the “Benevolent Hegemon.” This week, we discuss why many Americans have become disenchanted with this model, which is pressuring policymakers to either jettison the superpower role or significantly redefine it. Next… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! There is great joy in the financial and commodity markets this morning. Here is what we are watching today: The G-20 and China talks: To some extent, we got the deal we were expecting. Presidents Trump and Xi essentially agreed to a 90-day truce.[1] … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 30, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the FOMC raises rates, there are increasing concerns about the credit markets. After a long period of low rates, credit spreads are starting to widen, raising fears of financial stress. In this report, we will look at these concerns. First, here is what we are seeing with credit spreads: This chart… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s a very quiet market this morning. Equities continue to consolidate in front of this weekend’s G-20 meeting. Here is what we are watching today: The G-20 and China talks: We expect some sort of short-term accommodation at this weekend’s meeting. We look for… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equities are consolidating this morning after a strong rally yesterday. Here is what we are watching today: Powell: After spooking the financial markets in October, Fed Chair Powell gave a much more dovish speech yesterday. There were two elements of this talk that… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equities are ticking higher in front of Chair Powell’s speech this morning. Here is what we are watching today: The Fed: Chair Powell speaks in NY at 12:00 EST. We don’t expect anything groundbreaking but we will be watching to see if he follows… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Risk markets are under pressure this morning after the president maintained a hard line on Chinese tariffs. Here is what we are watching today: Chinese tariffs: In an interview with the WSJ,[1] President Trump indicated that he expects to lift existing tariffs on $200… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Malevolent Hegemon: Part I (November 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Since the election of Donald Trump, there has been much discussion about the demise of the “Liberal International Order,” or LIO. Several books on the topic have been published recently[1] and the general tenor is that the U.S. is giving up global leadership and the world is in trouble. We have been making… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Risk markets are higher this morning on hopes of a détente between China and the U.S. on trade and on hopes that the FOMC will signal some dovishness. Thanksgiving has passed and the West is gearing up for Christmas. Here is what we are… Read More »