Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 31, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee There are three factors that tend to cause recessions—inventory misadjustments, policy errors and geopolitical events. The first in the series has become less of a factor over time. Inventory management has improved dramatically since the end of WWII, and excess inventory leading to falling output has become less of an issue. Therefore,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 31, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good (?) morning! It’s ugly out there this morning; markets are in full risk-off mode, with all the flight to safety assets (yen, gold and Treasuries) rallying, while equities and commodities are falling. A surprise new tariff was announced on Mexico. Chinese data underwhelms and… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It was a quiet overnight session with some modest recovery in risk assets after the recent sell-off. The U.S. released a plethora of data this morning, which we cover in detail below. Most of Europe is closed for Ascension Thursday. Here is what… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Risk-off is dominating the financial markets this morning. Here is what we are watching: Global bonds: U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are falling toward the 2.20% level and yields around the developed world continue to spin lower. Although most economic indicators continue to signal… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and welcome back from the long weekend. Although financial markets are mostly steady, there was lots of news over the holiday. Here is what we are watching: European elections: EU elections ended over the weekend and the cross-currents are complicated. Here are the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 24, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee How important have mergers, buybacks, etc. been to equity market performance? Several analysts have attempted to answer this question by focusing on buybacks alone. However, there is a more straightforward method of looking at this question and including all the factors that affect the number of shares available—the index divisor. This chart… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! U.S. equity futures are recovering after a hard break yesterday. PM May is on her way out. There is hope of a break on the China/U.S. trade dispute. Here is what we are watching: Trade: There was mixed news on the trade front. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! U.S. equity futures are modestly lower this morning. There is a lot of news to digest this morning. Here is what we are watching: Trade wars: There is little evidence that the trade situation in China is improving. If anything, conditions are worsening. … Read More »
Daily Comment (May 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (N.B. We are making a modest change today in this report. Instead of footnoting links to news items, we are moving to using hyperlinks. To see the linked story, simply click the underlined and highlighted item in the report. This is a more “modern” way… Read More »