Research & News
Daily Comment (November 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Happy Thanksgiving!) Another down day for equities—stocks continue their slide. News flow was surprisingly light overnight. Here is… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th.) Happy Monday! It’s a short week as the U.S. prepares for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and a slow day on Friday. Here is what we are watching… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 16, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on November 30.) Last year, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th.) Happy Friday! After a strong close in equities yesterday, we are giving some of the gains back this morning. Trade worries continue to dominate. This is what we… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th.) It’s Thursday morning. Today’s headlines are being dominated by Brexit. Here is what we are watching: Brexit: PM May suffered a significant blow overnight as two cabinet ministers… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus beginning Wednesday, November 21st, returning on Monday, November 26th.) There is a lot going on this morning. Let’s dig in: Brexit—the end of the beginning: Yesterday afternoon (EST), the EU and the U.K. announced that a tentative… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 13, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! We are seeing a recovery in equities this morning after a rough day yesterday. The dollar’s a bit weaker this morning. Energy is mixed—oil prices are continuing their slump but natural gas is on a tear due to early winter weather east of the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Khashoggi Incident: Part II (November 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (NB: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next report will be published on November 26.) Last week, we discussed the issue of succession in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In Part II, we will begin with a discussion of the regional power rivalry between Turkey and the KSA, then outline Turkish President… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday and a bank holiday. Since Veteran’s Day fell on a weekend, the banking system is partially closed today, which means the cash Treasury market is closed. This is what we are watching this morning: OPEC and oil: President Trump has been critical of OPEC… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 9, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In light of rising interest rates, this week we will take a look at credit spreads. But, before doing that, it makes sense to examine overall Treasury valuation. This chart is our 10-year T-note model. It incorporates fed funds, the Japanese yen exchange rate, German sovereign 10-year yields, oil prices, the fiscal… Read More »