Research & News
Daily Comment (May 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as Huawei (002502, CNY 3.71) gets a reprieve. Political turmoil rises in Europe. Here is what we are watching: Huawei: The Commerce Department announced a reprieve for the Chinese tech company, giving it three months before… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela: An Update, Part II (May 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next issue will be published June 3.) In Part I of this report, we provided readers with a short history of Venezuela to bring some context to the current situation. This week, Part II, will examine the attempts by the opposition to oust Maduro, the… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! U.S. equity futures rolled over in the early morning hours on trade concerns. Tensions with Iran increase. Here is what we are watching: China trade: Positions appear to be hardening, but the tariffs are becoming less of an issue and the restrictions on… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 17, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Foreign exchange economics has become something of a backwater in economic theory. There are four predominant valuation methodologies; if one were any good, the others wouldn’t exist! The four are purchasing power parity, real equilibrium theory, interest rate differentials and productivity equalization (unit labor cost equalization). The general idea is that under… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Markets are down due to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Here are the stories we are following: Trade talks on hold: It appears the president’s attempt to bring China back to the negotiating table by targeting one of its key… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 16, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are higher this morning as fears of a trade dispute between the U.S. and Europe dissipate. That being said, escalating tensions in the Middle East and between U.S./China have caused a rally in bonds. Here are the stories we are following today: All-in on… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Markets are mixed this morning as Chinese equities lifted on speculation that Beijing will provide stimulus following weak economic data, while concerns that U.S. tariffs could dampen economic growth have weighed on U.S. futures. Here are the stories we are following today: War… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets were mixed this morning as rising tensions in the Middle East have caused oil prices to increase, while a softening of rhetoric by the president has restored optimism for a possible trade deal between the U.S. and China. Here are the stories we are… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela: An Update, Part I (May 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady On May 10, 2018, Nicolas Maduro was reelected as president of Venezuela. However, there were numerous irregularities during the vote and, as such, the U.S. and the Organization of American States (OAS) refused to view the election as legitimate. Shortly after Maduro was officially inaugurated on January 10, 2019, the National Assembly, which… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning, all! Equities are soft this morning due to rising tensions in trade and the Middle East. Here are the stories we are watching: China responds: This morning, China decided to impose tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods starting June 1. The decision… Read More »