Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 12, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The employment data is closely watched by financial markets; although the data isn’t necessarily a leading indicator for the economy, it is probably the most important from a political and social perspective. Weak employment data is a worry for political incumbents and concerning to policymakers. However, beyond the headline data, there are… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a risk-on day. Other than this sentence, there will be no discussion of Brexit today. Here is what we are watching: Chinese data: Bank loans rose much more than expected, with CNY 1.69 trillion extended compared to expectations of CNY 1.25 trillion. … Read More »
Daily Comment (April 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Lots of news this morning. Here is what we are watching: Assange arrested: The Ecuadorian government has removed Julian Assange’s asylum status and he has been arrested in London.[1] We expect him to eventually be extradited to the U.S.[2] Assange is a controversial figure; Wikileaks… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a very quiet morning in front of some important news today. Brexit, the ECB meeting and Fed minutes are all on tap this morning. Here is what we are watching: ECB: The ECB has pushed the first rate hike into next year (and it… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a very quiet morning in front of Brexit deadlines. The only economic news of note was weak Chinese car sales (-12.7% in March). Here is what we are watching: BREAKING NEWS: Italy reduces its GDP forecast to 0.1% from 1.0% this year. This action… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – When Hegemons Fade (April 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In our Daily Comment report, a section on Brexit has become something of a regular feature. As part of keeping up with developments, we have commented on nearly every twist and turn (or lack thereof) in the Brexit process. In a recent WGR series, we discussed the Irish problem[1] and how it relates… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Although we are in spring, a massive winter storm is moving over the northern plains and will delay planting in the northern Corn Belt. It will also increase flooding in the major river systems in a couple of weeks. Here is what we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 5, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Mortgage-backed securities have rather odd characteristics compared to Treasuries. At their most basic level, mortgages are bonds—prices are inversely related to yields. The pricing on mortgages assumes a certain level of refinancing activity. However, when yields rise, expected mortgage duration tends to extend because mortgage holders are less likely to refinance. When… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment Friday! We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that it is a nearly perfect report. Payrolls recovered, unemployment remained low and wage pressures eased. Here is what we are watching today: Trade progress: President Trump[1] and Chairman Xi[2]… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are quiet this morning; initial claims fell to a 49-year low. Here is what we are watching: Trade progress: President Trump and Vice Premier Liu are scheduled to meet at the White House today, a sign that trade talks are heading toward some sort… Read More »