Research & News
Daily Comment (July 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! We are essentially halfway through summer, semi-officially marked by the All-Star Game, the “midsummer classic.” Trading is quiet; investors should note that activity tends to slow during the summer. Europe is essentially on holiday to some extent… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 5, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although it’s not official,[1] it appears the current expansion has reached a new record. This chart shows expansions by months since 1850. The current expansion just reached 121 months, exceeding the 1991-2001 expansion, which was previously the longest. Part of the reason this expansion has lasted so long is because economic growth… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: We are publishing an abbreviated report today. Because of the all-important labor market data, we wanted to provide our coverage of that issue and the usual energy market update as well. Additionally, the AAW will be updated. But the headings in… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] (NB: We will publish an abbreviated report on Friday. Because of the all-important labor market data, we wanted to provide our coverage of that issue and the usual energy market update as well. Additionally, the AAW will be updated. But the headings… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing quiet financial markets this morning after a strong equity rally faded throughout the day yesterday. Hong Kong, a new threat of tariffs on the EU and the Iran nuclear violation are topping the news. Also, an apology—we forgot to… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are sharply higher in a relief rally from the G-20 meeting. Oil is up on OPEC+ news. Although it’s not exactly official yet, we are unofficially enjoying the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.[1] Here is what we are… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 28, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Gold prices have been strong recently, supported by perceptions of easing monetary policy and oblique statements from the White House hinting at supporting a weaker dollar. Lower interest rates and dollar weakness are generally bullish for gold prices. Our coincident gold price model suggests the recent rally is merely “catching up” from… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity markets are higher this morning on hopes of a trade deal at this weekend’s G-20 meeting. The second leg of the first Democratic debate was held last night. Vice President Biden had a tough night; there are concerns that if Biden… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity markets are higher this morning on hopes of a trade deal at this weekend’s G-20 meeting. The first Democratic debate was held last night; although there is much analysis out in the media, keep in mind that this is like analyzing… Read More »