Research & News
Daily Comment (October 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Fed day! We discussed the FOMC meeting in detail yesterday; there’s a quick summary below. It’s also GDP day (see the Economic Releases section below for details). At long last, there will be elections in the U.K., and we also update… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The S&P 500 hit a new record yesterday.[1] There is growing hope of a trade deal. The FOMC meeting begins today. Brexit continues. Here are the details: China trade: Contours of a trade deal, or ceasefire, are slowly emerging. There are reports… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Japan: Will the Tax Hike Bite? Part I (October 28, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Even though Japan has one of the world’s largest economies and accounts for a hefty share of global stock market capitalization, it isn’t getting nearly as much attention from investors as it did during its boom years in the 1970s and 1980s. In part, that’s because Japan’s economic growth has become… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! It was a busy weekend in front of a busy week. Here are the details: Baghdadi dead: The leader of Islamic State (IS), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, died over the weekend, killing himself with a suicide vest while… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 25, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee For nearly two years, the energy sector has dramatically underperformed the overall equity market and oil prices. This chart shows our S&P energy sector model. We regress the overall S&P 500 and oil prices against the energy sector. For most of the index’s history, these two variables explained much of the behavior… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Markets are trading quietly this morning. We are watching Johnson’s attempt to bring elections, China/U.S. trade talks, Syria reports and Argentine elections. And, the EU moves to standard time this weekend. Here are the details: Brexit: PM Johnson has called… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s a rather quiet day in earnings season. Mario Draghi holds his last meeting as president of the ECB, Boris Johnson waits for the EU and we have an update on Syria. Here are the details: ECB: The statement held… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 23, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! An update on Brexit, Carrie Lam on the outs, trade update, Syria update and more on repo. Here are the details: Brexit: It was both a good and bad day for Boris. The good news is that his Brexit bill… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It’s rather quiet in the markets this morning. Trudeau wins another term, but not a majority. The Brexit saga continues. No government in Israel. Some background on Chile. Here are the details: Trudeau wins: PM Trudeau won another term but… Read More »