Research & News
Daily Comment (March 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Ides of March Friday! The National Party Congress (NPC) ended in China and New Zealand is reeling from a mass shooting. U.S. equity futures are higher. Here is what we are watching this morning: The National Party Congress: Unlike previous events, this one was… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Pi Day![1] It’s a very quiet day so far this morning. U.S. equity futures are modestly lower. Here is what we are watching: Brexit: As expected, MPs voted to avoid a no-deal Brexit, despite an 11th hour plea from the PM to vote against… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning in a quiet news environment. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: As expected, PM May’s plan failed again;[1] although the vote was closer this time, it was nowhere close to passing.[2] Today, Parliament votes… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are flat this morning after a strong run yesterday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: In an 11th hour attempt to seal a deal,[1] PM May and EU Commissioner Juncker offered statements to clarify and ease the Irish backstop… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Modern Monetary Theory: Part I (March 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In recent weeks, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become a hot topic of discussion. Given the level of controversy, we want to provide our take on the theory. One could wonder if this topic is appropriate for a geopolitical report. We are using this report to examine MMT because, in our opinion, its… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity futures are mostly higher this morning, although Dow futures are lower on the Ethiopian airlines crash.[1] Here is what we are watching this morning: Chinese trade: It appears the trade summit between China and the U.S. will likely be delayed, probably into April.[2] There… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 8, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve is experiencing a crisis of sorts. For years, policymakers have used the Phillips Curve as a guide to policy. The Phillips Curve postulates that there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Essentially, to quell inflation policymakers need to raise rates to create unemployment. The basic idea is that… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment Friday! We cover the data below but the quick read is that it’s mixed. The payroll data came in very weak (+20k vs. +180k expected). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% from 4.0% last month, and wages rose more than expected. Market reaction… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are lifting on the back of the ECB. Here is what we are watching this morning: ECB: The ECB went a bit further than expected in its statement.[1] There was no change in the policy rate but the statement indicated there will be a… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another very quiet news morning. Equity futures continue to struggle. Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: The ECB is reportedly cutting its inflation forecasts through 2021. The reductions are said to be enough to allow the ECB to extend easy policy… Read More »