Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Dollar Problem: Part I (October 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady In May, the Trump administration exited the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal.[1] In conjunction with its exit, the U.S. implemented new sanctions and the goal of U.S. policy is to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero barrels by November. The other parties in the agreement,… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 1, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday! It’s a risk-on day and the U.S, Canada and Mexico have struck a deal on NAFTA. U.S. equity futures are higher, while precious metals and Treasury prices are lower. Here is what we are watching: A NAFTA deal: Although the deadline wasn’t as “dead”… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 28, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Since late August, interest rates have been steadily rising. The 10-year T-note yield made its recent low at 2.82%[1] on August 4th. Since then, yields have moved above 3.00%. Our 10-year T-note model suggests rates are a bit elevated. This model includes fed funds and the 15-year moving average of inflation (a… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! After a tumultuous week, financial markets are being roiled today by Italy. Here is what we are watching: The Italian crisis: The populist government in Italy has been pressing against the EU budget rules. In general, a 2% deficit/GDP ratio is the highest allowed… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are mostly steady this morning (although the dollar is stronger) after a rather large number of economic releases this morning. The FOMC meeting ended as expected, with no major surprises. Economics will take a back seat to politics on this Thursday. Here is what… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC meeting ends today but, to a great extent, the Fed is being overshadowed by political events. Here is what we are watching today: The FOMC meeting: The FOMC meeting ends today with near certainty of a 25 bps rate hike. There is a press… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning, all! There was a lot of overnight news; below are the stories we are paying the most attention to: Labour to reject Brexit deal? Earlier this morning, Labour’s Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer fueled speculation of a second Brexit referendum by suggesting the Labour party… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part II (September 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we discussed Venezuela’s economic and political situations. Part II begins with a discussion on migration with a focus on emigrant flows. We include an analysis of the problems caused by migration followed by an examination of the possible end to this crisis and the broader geopolitical issues. As always, we will… Read More »
Daily Comment (September 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is a lot going on this week. The FOMC meets, U.N. meetings are underway in New York and SCOTUS nominee Kavanaugh is facing new accusers. Also, financial markets were closed today in Japan, mainland China, Taiwan and Korea for an autumn holiday. Here is what… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (September 21, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In this week’s report, we will focus on the U.S. economy. Since the 1987 crash every major equity market decline has coincided with a recession. Thus, we pay close attention to the economy with the goal of projecting the next recession. This expansion, which began in June 2009, is now the second… Read More »