Research & News
Daily Comment (March 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a very quiet news morning. When the Chinese National Party Congress dominates the news, you can tell things are slow. Equity futures are steady after a drubbing yesterday. Here is what we are watching this morning: After the Chinese trade deal: Although negotiations continue,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Irish Question: Part II (March 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we examined the geopolitics of Britain and offered an abbreviated history of Irish/British relations. This week, we will begin by analyzing the Good Friday Agreement, followed by an analysis of Brexit regarding the Irish question. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications. The Good Friday Agreement By the late 1990s,… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are moving higher this morning on hopes of a U.S./China trade deal. China’s National Party Congress begins on Wednesday and the ECB meets on Thursday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Chinese trade: It appears the U.S. and China are nearing a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 1, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Our cyclical position on foreign investing remains with a zero allocation; although the committee has not been negative on foreign, our work suggested that the risk/reward compared to small and mid-cap stocks warranted putting more assets in those areas. However, we are continuing to pay close attention to foreign as an area… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-on Friday with little news to account for the strength. World PMIs (see below) remain rather soft, although several (including China) came in above depressed expectations. Here is what we are watching this morning: MSCI lifts China: The index provider MSCI has boosted… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The U.S./North Korea summit ended abruptly as the leaders reached an impasse. We are seeing some modest flight to safety market action. Here is what we are watching this morning: The summit abruptly ends: The two sides reached an impasse. North Korea was willing to… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is an escalation between India and Pakistan, and a summit in Hanoi. Futures markets suffered a technical glitch and stopped trading for several hours overnight.[1] Here is what we are watching this morning: India v. Pakistan: There has been an escalation of tensions between… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 26, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are taking a breather this morning in a news heavy environment. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: The drama continues. PM May met with her cabinet this morning and will support a vote on delaying Brexit past the March 29 deadline[1] and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Irish Question: Part I (February 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady As the United Kingdom continues on its path to withdraw from the European Union, a key element that needs to be considered is the border issue in Ireland. The Northern Ireland/Ireland frontier is the only border that would be directly affected by Brexit. The rest of the U.K. is an island, although border… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-on day with China’s equities on a tear. Here is what we are watching this morning: It’s official—tariffs are delayed: Although anyone paying attention would not be surprised by this outcome, President Trump confirmed that the next round of tariffs on China will be… Read More »