Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 22, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a modest risk on day today in front of “mega Fed”—seven FOMC members will talk today.[1] Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed minutes follow-up: Yesterday, we noted two quotes lifted from the Fed minutes. …several of the participants argued that rate increases… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are steady this morning in quiet trading. There is some optimism, however, on the China/U.S. trade talks and on the Fed’s balance sheet. European and Japanese PMIs were disappointing, suggesting weaker global growth, and the Philly Fed was very weak (see below). Here… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s mid-week (already!). Global equities are stronger this morning and U.S. equity futures are flat. Here is what we are watching this morning: More U.K. defections: Yesterday, we reported that seven Labour MPs left their party to form a new centrist party, called the Independent Group. … Read More »
Daily Comment (February 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back! The three-day weekend is now past and it’s back to work. Global equities are weaker this morning and U.S. equity futures are too. Here is what we are watching this morning: The world goes dovish: The FOMC is reconsidering its balance sheet policy[1] and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 15, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The pullback in equities in Q4 coincided with a sharp drop in long-duration Treasury yields. However, the recovery seen in early 2019 has not led to a rise in yields. This chart shows the S&P 500 (left axis) and the 10-year T-note yield (right axis). Note that yields and the equity markets… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are steady to higher this morning in quiet trading. There is some optimism on the China/U.S. trade talks and on the Fed’s balance sheet. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade talks: Although there isn’t much evidence of real progress (e.g.,… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy St. Valentine’s Day! U.S. equity futures are trending higher this morning in quiet trading. Here is what we are watching: White House calming markets: The president is reportedly considering pushing back the trade deadline by 60 days and backing a border security bill that would… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 13, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are trending higher this morning in quiet trading. Here is what we are watching: Brexit: PM May has asked for more time to negotiate with Brussels.[1] Apparently, she is still seeking changes to the Irish backstop, although there isn’t much evidence at this… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are trending higher this morning after a mostly flat day yesterday. The big news is that negotiators have reached a deal to avoid a government shutdown. Here is what we are watching this morning: Shutdown averted: Negotiators have reached a deal to avoid… Read More »