Research & News
Daily Comment (August 31, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] So, we have to say “goodbye” to summer…and have a great Labor Day! Here is what we are watching today: Emerging fears: The two problem nations, Argentina and Turkey, continue to struggle. Argentina has taken a beating; the currency is plunging to new depths and overnight… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 30, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] So far, it’s a quiet morning with a bit of a “risk-off” tone. Here is what we are watching today: An EU trade proposal? EU Commission President Juncker came to Washington this summer and convinced President Trump that the EU and the U.S. should negotiate on… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a quiet Wednesday, very typical of late summer. Here is what we are watching today: Ottawa to Washington: The U.S. has given Canadian negotiators a deadline of Friday to accept the deal negotiated by the U.S. and Mexico. In response, Canada’s foreign minister, Chrystia Freeland,[1]… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a quiet Tuesday. Here is what we are watching today: A deal with Mexico: Although it wasn’t a huge surprise, it does appear the U.S. and Mexico have a trade agreement. The overall details are as follows:[1] 75% of content in autos must be sourced… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Turkey Crisis: Part II (August 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to the Labor Day holiday, the next report will be published on September 10.) Last week, we covered Turkey’s geopolitics and history.[1] This week, we complete the series, starting with a discussion on Turkey’s economy with a focus on the changes brought by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a solemn Monday as the nation mourns the passing of Sen. John McCain. It is dominating the media’s focus. It is also the last week of summer and it is clear that trading desks are thin and quiet. Here is what we are watching today:… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 24, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee What is price stability? The working definition for the Federal Reserve was crafted by Alan Greenspan in 1994, when he suggested that price stability has been achieved when “…households and businesses need not factor expectations of changes in the average level of prices into their decisions.”[1] In other words, a central bank… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Markets are fairly quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching today: Powell speaks: The Jackson Hole meeting is underway. Chair Powell will start speaking around 10:00 EDT. We don’t expect anything other than “steady as she goes,” meaning at least one more… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s very quiet this morning. The dollar is rebounding and precious metals are lower. The focus appears to be on the Fed and Jackson Hole. Here is what we are watching today: The Fed minutes: The minutes held no big surprises—the FOMC is preparing the market… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing a bit of risk-off this morning on the big political stories from yesterday. However, the emphasis is on “bit”; equity weakness isn’t excessive, the dollar is modestly weaker, gold is higher but not by a lot and Treasury yields are down but no… Read More »