Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 8, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve is experiencing a crisis of sorts. For years, policymakers have used the Phillips Curve as a guide to policy. The Phillips Curve postulates that there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Essentially, to quell inflation policymakers need to raise rates to create unemployment. The basic idea is that… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment Friday! We cover the data below but the quick read is that it’s mixed. The payroll data came in very weak (+20k vs. +180k expected). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% from 4.0% last month, and wages rose more than expected. Market reaction… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are lifting on the back of the ECB. Here is what we are watching this morning: ECB: The ECB went a bit further than expected in its statement.[1] There was no change in the policy rate but the statement indicated there will be a… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another very quiet news morning. Equity futures continue to struggle. Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: The ECB is reportedly cutting its inflation forecasts through 2021. The reductions are said to be enough to allow the ECB to extend easy policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a very quiet news morning. When the Chinese National Party Congress dominates the news, you can tell things are slow. Equity futures are steady after a drubbing yesterday. Here is what we are watching this morning: After the Chinese trade deal: Although negotiations continue,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Irish Question: Part II (March 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we examined the geopolitics of Britain and offered an abbreviated history of Irish/British relations. This week, we will begin by analyzing the Good Friday Agreement, followed by an analysis of Brexit regarding the Irish question. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications. The Good Friday Agreement By the late 1990s,… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are moving higher this morning on hopes of a U.S./China trade deal. China’s National Party Congress begins on Wednesday and the ECB meets on Thursday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Chinese trade: It appears the U.S. and China are nearing a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 1, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Our cyclical position on foreign investing remains with a zero allocation; although the committee has not been negative on foreign, our work suggested that the risk/reward compared to small and mid-cap stocks warranted putting more assets in those areas. However, we are continuing to pay close attention to foreign as an area… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-on Friday with little news to account for the strength. World PMIs (see below) remain rather soft, although several (including China) came in above depressed expectations. Here is what we are watching this morning: MSCI lifts China: The index provider MSCI has boosted… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The U.S./North Korea summit ended abruptly as the leaders reached an impasse. We are seeing some modest flight to safety market action. Here is what we are watching this morning: The summit abruptly ends: The two sides reached an impasse. North Korea was willing to… Read More »