Research & News
Daily Comment (February 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment day! We cover the data in detail below but here is a quick rundown. The payroll data came in much stronger than expected, but there was a large downward revision to December. The unemployment rate ticked higher, but that was likely due to the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 31, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday brought a strong rally in U.S. equities. Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed meeting: The Fed meeting delivered more than what was expected.[1] First, the FOMC removed language from previous statements suggesting the path for the policy rate was on a gradual… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Fed Day! U.S. equity futures are higher this morning in light of some solid earnings reports. Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed meeting: The FOMC ends its two-day meeting today. Although we won’t get new dots or forecasts, Chair Powell begins his… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly higher this morning after a drop yesterday. It’s the last week of the Year of the Dog—my two are sad about its end. The Year of the Pig starts next week. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade talks… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – What to do with China: Part I (January 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Graham Allison published a controversial book in 2017 in which he argued that the probability for a major war increases when an established hegemon faces an emerging power that threatens the hegemon’s position. He used Thucydides, the Greek historian who wrote a history of the war between Sparta and Athens, as his model… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 28, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back; we are sure the Pro Bowl captured your attention over the weekend. There is a lot going on this week, including unemployment data, Chinese/U.S. trade meetings and Brexit votes in Parliament. The U.S. government has reopened, at least temporarily, and it’s going to get… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 25, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the important unknown factors for 2019 is whether slowing global growth will have a negative impact on the U.S. economy. Or, put another way, can the world lead the U.S. into recession? For the most part, history suggests the answer is no—the U.S. can bring down the world but the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are rallying around the world. Here is what we are watching this morning: Venezuela: As we noted yesterday, China and Russia[1] would be on the hook for billions of bad debt that a new government could simply default on, arguing the debt was incurred by… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2019)
Letter to Investors If you’re like most investors, you’re probably delighted to see 2018 in the rearview mirror. It was a year in which the stock market began on a euphoric note, in a January that proved to be the last month of a nearly two-year rising market. Indeed, from February 2016 to late January… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are rising modestly this morning. Here is what we are watching: Venezuela heats up: Venezuela has been a problem for a while. Its economy and government have essentially stopped functioning. Hyperinflation has set in. There is a massive exodus of Venezuelans[1] to other parts of… Read More »