Research & News
Daily Comment (February 27, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is an escalation between India and Pakistan, and a summit in Hanoi. Futures markets suffered a technical glitch and stopped trading for several hours overnight.[1] Here is what we are watching this morning: India v. Pakistan: There has been an escalation of tensions between… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 26, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are taking a breather this morning in a news heavy environment. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: The drama continues. PM May met with her cabinet this morning and will support a vote on delaying Brexit past the March 29 deadline[1] and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Irish Question: Part I (February 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady As the United Kingdom continues on its path to withdraw from the European Union, a key element that needs to be considered is the border issue in Ireland. The Northern Ireland/Ireland frontier is the only border that would be directly affected by Brexit. The rest of the U.K. is an island, although border… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 25, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-on day with China’s equities on a tear. Here is what we are watching this morning: It’s official—tariffs are delayed: Although anyone paying attention would not be surprised by this outcome, President Trump confirmed that the next round of tariffs on China will be… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 22, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee In 2017, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 22, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a modest risk on day today in front of “mega Fed”—seven FOMC members will talk today.[1] Here is what we are watching this morning: Fed minutes follow-up: Yesterday, we noted two quotes lifted from the Fed minutes. …several of the participants argued that rate increases… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 21, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are steady this morning in quiet trading. There is some optimism, however, on the China/U.S. trade talks and on the Fed’s balance sheet. European and Japanese PMIs were disappointing, suggesting weaker global growth, and the Philly Fed was very weak (see below). Here… Read More »
Daily Comment (February 20, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s mid-week (already!). Global equities are stronger this morning and U.S. equity futures are flat. Here is what we are watching this morning: More U.K. defections: Yesterday, we reported that seven Labour MPs left their party to form a new centrist party, called the Independent Group. … Read More »
Daily Comment (February 19, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Welcome back! The three-day weekend is now past and it’s back to work. Global equities are weaker this morning and U.S. equity futures are too. Here is what we are watching this morning: The world goes dovish: The FOMC is reconsidering its balance sheet policy[1] and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (February 15, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The pullback in equities in Q4 coincided with a sharp drop in long-duration Treasury yields. However, the recovery seen in early 2019 has not led to a rise in yields. This chart shows the S&P 500 (left axis) and the 10-year T-note yield (right axis). Note that yields and the equity markets… Read More »