Research & News
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 10, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Last year, we introduced an indicator of the basic health of the economy and added it to the many charts we monitor to gauge market conditions. The indicator is constructed with commodity prices, initial claims and consumer confidence. The thesis behind this indicator is that these three components should offer a simple… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are down as investors are concerned that a possible collapse of the Turkish lira could spill over to the Eurozone. Here is what we are watching: Economic warfare? Proposed U.S. sanctions on Turkey and Russia have caused the currencies in the respective countries to fall… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 9, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching: Trade update: Russia is facing another round of sanctions,[1] these tied to the chemical weapons poisoning in April of British citizen and former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter. The sanctions are part of… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Today’s trade is becalmed—there is nothing major happening in any markets thus far. This sort of activity is very typical for August. Here is what we are watching today. Trade news: The U.S. announced that $16 bn of Chinese imports will face an additional 25% tariff.[1] … Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] We are seeing some risk-on behavior this morning; global equities are moving higher, the dollar is a bit weaker, precious metals are stronger and Treasury rates are rising. Here is what we are watching today. Primaries today: The media will be mostly focused on primaries being… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part II (August 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we introduced the topic of the Trump administration’s decision to implement sanctions on Iran and covered two potential responses from Iran, which were restarting its nuclear program and projecting power. This week, we will discuss the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Response #3: Closing the Strait of Hormuz On its… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 6, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are rather quiet this morning, a reflection of the “dog days” of summer. However, there was a lot of news over the weekend. Let’s dig in: Trade talks: China indicated it is preparing for a protracted trade war.[1] In a new turn, Chinese state media… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 3, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee At the end of June, we published a study of how the equity and bond markets reacted to the inversion of the yield curve. This week’s report takes that inversion data and compares it to how the 10 sectors of the S&P 500 perform.[1] For this report, we will use the two-year/10-year… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Beer Day![1] Also, it’s employment data day. We detail the data below but the quick take is that the data is a bit better than expected but not so strong as to change policy. Financial markets are treating the report with some caution, mostly due… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a risk-off morning. The news driving the weakness in equities appears to be related to escalating trade tensions with China. Here is what we are watching this morning: Trade update: Yesterday, there were reports that the White House was considering increasing the tariff rate on… Read More »