Research & News
Daily Comment (August 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Risk assets are rising again this morning. Central banks make a splash; gold continues to march higher. Trade conflict with China remains front and center. Here are the details: Central bank surprise: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Reserve… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Risk assets are getting a bounce this morning. Trade conflict with China remains front and center. Here are the details: Currency manipulator: The Treasury has officially designated China a “currency manipulator.” This designation isn’t as big a deal in reality… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Turkey Lashing Out (August 5, 2019)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here at Confluence, we write a lot about the rise and fall of hegemonic states – those great nations that develop enough power and influence to dominate the global economy, or at least some region of it. These superpowers use their extraordinary military might and other levers to impose order on… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday, but far from a happy one. Global equity markets are taking a beating while interest rates continue to decline. Geopolitical tensions are rising in several theaters. The U.S. is dealing with two mass shootings. And, the Haj begins today. Here… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 2, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee As wages and other costs rise and pricing power appears constrained, there are reasonable worries about the path of corporate earnings. We use purely top-down analysis to forecast earnings. Essentially, we forecast the percentage of total S&P company earnings relative to GDP. We use the nominal GDP forecast from the Philadelphia FRB’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday employment day! We cover the data in detail below but the snapshot is generally in line with expectations. Payrolls were 164k, nearly bang on forecasts of 165k, although revisions lowered payrolls by a net 32k. The unemployment rate was unchanged… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Markets are dealing with the aftermath of the Fed meeting. China is slow-walking trade. The BOE met today. Osama bin Laden’s son is believed to have died. The MLB trade deadline big winner was Houston, with Atlanta coming in a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! The FOMC meeting ends today. North Korea continues to fire off missiles. The baseball trading deadline occurs at 4:00 EDT today. Here is what we are watching this morning: The Fed: Yesterday, we noted the scenarios for today’s monetary policy. … Read More »
Daily Comment (July 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! The FOMC meeting begins today. The GBP continues its slide. Here are the details: The Fed: Although there is almost no chance the Fed won’t cut by 25 bps tomorrow, we are watching for two items. First, Powell’s language, especially… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Economic Triangle: Part II (July 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady The Economic Triangle: Part II Last week, we referenced the basic philosophies of David Hume and Adam Smith and how their writings evolved into the economic theory of supply and demand. From there, we examined the weakness of supply and demand at the macro level and discussed an alternative model, the Economic… Read More »