Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part II (July 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we defined important terms that shape the political alignments and examined the coalitions that mostly define the political sphere.[1] This week, we make some general observations of how the coalitions interact, discuss the “natural” pairings of the coalitions and examine historical examples. We will conclude with market ramifications. Observations There is… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although it was a quiet weekend, we have had a busy morning. Here is what we are watching: Iran: There was media sniping this morning, which appears to have started in Iran. First, President Rouhani of Iran warned the U.S. not to escalate tensions with his… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 20, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although earnings are rising, equity markets have been range-bound since February. This chart shows the S&P 500; after peaking around 2870, prices have been in a range roughly from 2600 to 2800. Although monetary policy tightening is partly to blame, the Fed was lifting rates during the period when the market was… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is a lot going on. Let’s dig in: The president speaks: For the most part, President Trump has been opposed to a weak dollar. At Davos this year, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested a weaker dollar might be in U.S. interests if the goal was a… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equity markets are lower this morning. The EuroStoxx 50 is down 0.3% from the last close. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Apex 50 was down 0.2% from the prior close. Chinese markets were down, with the Shanghai composite down 0.5% and the Shenzhen index down… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2018)
We expect that Fed policy will continue tightening through year-end, with as many as two additional increases in the fed funds rate in tandem with a measured reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, but the prospect for a recession is not included in our cyclical forecast. Our expectations are for continued GDP… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets are quiet this morning; the biggest market moves are in currencies and commodities. The dollar is up this morning in the aftermath of the Powell testimony, which is dragging commodities and emerging markets lower. Here is what we are watching: Google fined: Google (GOOG,… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Tonight’s midsummer classic, the All-Star Game, is really the official midpoint of summer. Markets are quiet this morning. Here is what we are watching: Did the president go too far? Criticism of President Trump’s performance at the press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin was widespread. … Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Politics and Populism: Part I (July 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady The rise of populism and the preference for unconventional leaders are upending the world order that the U.S. created after WWII. Accordingly, across the West, we are seeing a steady rejection of centrist, establishment parties. Here are some of the changes we have observed recently: France: Emmanuel Macron was elected to the presidency… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! The media is focused on the Trump/Putin meetings in Helsinki but financial markets are mostly ignoring the spectacle. The biggest major market move is in oil, which we discuss below. Here is what we are watching this morning: China GDP: China’s Q2 GDP[1] rose… Read More »