Research & News
Daily Comment (July 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a safe and happy Independence Day! The “dog days” of summer officially begin today.[1] It looks like a risk-on day so far. U.S. financial markets close early for the mid-week Independence Day holiday. Equity markets close at… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the first day of Q3! So far, it’s not an auspicious start. We did celebrate “Bobby Bonilla Day” yesterday, one of our favorite holidays.[1] There is lots of news this morning. Let’s dig in: Mexican elections: As expected, Lopez Obrador, otherwise known as AMLO, easily… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 29, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee With the recent narrowing of the yield curve, we have been receiving a number of questions about the impact of inversion. Defined, yield curve inversion is when short-duration interest rates rise above long-duration interest rates. The yield curve is arguably the single best indicator of recession. Therefore, with various calculations of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday and good riddance to Q2! It’s looking like a risk-on day. Lots of news today. Let’s dig in: EU summit: A deal was struck on immigration and refugees in a nearly all-night session.[1] The agreement says that seaborne migrants will be placed into processing… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 28, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As the second quarter winds down, this morning’s news flow is fairly quiet. GDP came in a bit soft (see below). Here is what we are watching this morning: The EU summit: EU leaders are meeting today through the weekend. The primary topic will be immigration… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 27, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Here we are at mid-week. Financial markets are recovering this morning after a difficult overnight session. Here is what we are watching: Softening on trade? Around 7:35 AM EDT, the White House[1] announced it would not create a new regime to scrutinize Chinese investments and instead… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a rough day yesterday, financial markets are attempting to stabilize this morning. Here is what we are watching: Trouble in Iran: Protests are escalating in Iran. Comments on Twitter suggest there is widespread dissatisfaction with the government. Unconfirmed reports of crowds chanting “Leave Syria, think… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (June 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Independence Day holiday, the next report will be published July 9.) As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Monday. This morning, it’s trade, Turkey and OPEC. Here are the headlines: Trade: The Trump administration is preparing to put capital controls against Chinese investment in a variety of U.S. industries deemed critical for security. The industries are mostly in the technology sector. The president… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (June 22, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Cycle studies are common in analyzing markets. Such studies can be quite useful in some markets that are affected by seasonal factors, such as commodities. We all know it gets cold in the winter and rains in the spring, and measuring the timing of when market participants discount these events can offer… Read More »