Research & News
Daily Comment (January 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are flat this morning after a strong rally on Friday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Powell the dove: Chair Powell participated in a panel discussion on Friday that included former Fed Chairs Bernanke and Yellen. He pretty much said everything… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 4, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Quantitative easing (QE) was an element of unconventional monetary policy that emerged from the Great Financial Crisis. When the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds target to zero (known as the “zero interest rate policy,” or ZIRP), policymakers decided that taking the policy rate below zero would not further stimulate the economy. … Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a hard sell-off in equities yesterday, we are seeing a bounce this morning. Boosting sentiment are hopes for a dovish tone from Chair Powell, a reserve rate cut in China and the opening of formal trade talks between the U.S. and China. We cover the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It was all about Apple (AAPL, 157.92), which is down around 8% in the pre-market trade, and the yen. Here is what’s going on: AAPL: Apple[1] released a letter warning investors that the company would miss revenue estimates. Two reasons were given for the decline, weaker… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Back to the salt mines! The New Year, 2019 (hard to believe, isn’t it?), is starting out with a thud as weak Chinese data has sent equities into the red. Here is what we are watching this morning: The Chinese data: The PMI data[1] from China… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 21, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This is the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2018. Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. The next report will be published January 4, 2019.) The U.S. economy is performing in line with the rest of the world. This chart shows the yearly change in U.S. and world ex-U.S. GDP. … Read More »
Daily Comment (December 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] [N.B. The Daily Comment will go on holiday from December 24 to January 2. From all of us at Confluence, but especially Thomas and me, thanks for reading and have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!] On Friday, December 14, we published our 2019… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] [N.B. The Daily Comment will go on holiday from December 24 to January 2. From all of us at Confluence, but especially Thomas and me, thanks for reading and have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!] On Friday, December 14, we published our 2019… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] [N.B. The Daily Comment will go on holiday from December 24 to January 2. From all of us at Confluence, but especially Thomas and me, thanks for reading and have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!] BREAKING NEWS: The U.S. is preparing to make… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] On Friday, December 14, we published our 2019 Outlook: Red Sky at Morning report. If you missed it, you can find the report linked here or on our website. U.S. equity futures are lifting this morning after another hard decline yesterday. Oil prices are falling, with… Read More »