Research & News
Daily Comment (October 29, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets in the U.S. are rebounding this morning as investors begin to edge back into the market after a hard decline. Here is what we are watching this morning: German elections and Merkel: On Sunday, the German state of Hesse held local elections. Although local… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 26, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee One of the earliest lessons taught in statistics is that “correlation does not equal causality.” Any relationship that exists between two variables usually rests on a myriad of conditions; if any of these conditions change, correlations can break down rapidly. This doesn’t mean that correlation isn’t a useful tool but it show… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 26, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s Friday and equities are taking on water again this morning. Today’s weakness is due to disappointing earnings from two tech giants, Amazon[1] (AMZN, 1782.17), which is down 7.7% in pre-market trading, and Alphabet[2] (GOOGL, 1103.59), down 4.2% in the pre-market. We cover Q3 GDP in… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 25, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s the fourth day of what has been a tough week. Yesterday’s equity market sell-off was clearly a shocker. Although there is other news this morning, including the ECB meeting, we start today with thoughts about equities: Equity thoughts: Two weeks ago, in the Asset Allocation… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 24, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s mid-week and equity markets are trying to find their footing. Yesterday’s action almost qualified for what a former boss of mine would call a “Hollywood finish.” That’s one where the market takes a beating in the early part of the day only to recover to… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 23, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equities are under pressure this morning. Note that China’s big rally yesterday was unable to hold. Earnings disappointments are being cited as the reason. However, as our earnings figures show, earnings are coming in a bit higher than expected. What is starting to affect equities… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Return of the Strongman: Part I (October 22, 2018)
by Thomas Wash On October 7th, Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist, made it out of the first round of presidential elections in Brazil in decisive fashion. A controversial figure within his country, Bolsonaro was able to build his popularity on the growing distrust of the government. Rising crime, corruption scandals and a record-breaking recession have led… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! We are seeing a bit of optimism this morning as Chinese equities rallied overnight. There was nothing in the news that was necessarily bullish for China but a constant drumbeat of supportive statements from CPC officials has likely given investors the idea that the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 19, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee The accompanying notes to the release of the FOMC minutes on October 17th indicated expectations from a majority of members to eventually push fed fund rates above the level that they would otherwise view as neutral. In the most recent projections, the average of members’ estimates for the neutral level by 2021… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 19, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Global equities are mixed this morning due to concerns about a possible stand-off between the EU and Rome along with slower than expected GDP growth in China. Here are the stories we are following today: Italy budget: In a rebuke to Rome, the European Commission (EC)… Read More »