Research & News
Daily Comment (October 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equities fell and Treasury yields rose due to the hawkish tone of the Fed minutes. There was not a lot of overnight news but below are the stories we are following today: EU trade truce on the rocks: The truce between the U.S. and… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (October 2018)
Letter to Investors Here we are just a little more than three-quarters of the way through 2018. While many might regard this as a rather unusual year for the stock market, it really hasn’t been all that unusual. This is true even though the market is now experiencing its second downturn of greater than 5%… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are mixed this morning as strong earnings led to a surge in tech stocks but weaker earnings from automakers due to rising costs are likely weighing on investors. Here are the stories we are following today: Mueller to release key findings: Special Counsel Robert Mueller is… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2018)
The U.S. economy is stable and growing, with sentiment indicators remaining high. A recession is not included in our cyclical forecast. The Fed’s tightening policy has thus far had modest effects. We expect a continuation of increases in the fed funds rate in tandem with a reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. Though unemployment is… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities have rebounded this morning due to expectations of strong earnings, and Treasury yields are also trending upward as it appears tensions are easing with Saudi Arabia and China. Below are the stories we will be following throughout the day: Khashoggi death: On Monday, CNN reported… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The equity sell-off has returned as U.S. tensions with Saudi Arabia and China escalated over the weekend. Growing concerns of market uncertainty have led to a rise in oil prices, gold and Treasuries, as well as a drop in the dollar. Below are the stories we… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (October 12, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Politics is usually an uncomfortable topic for financial market analysts. The subject is fraught with high emotion, and being overly concerned about a specific political outcome can sometimes cloud judgement. At the same time, political trends offer insight into future policy changes that can affect financial market performance. For example, we have… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 12, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! It appears the market has finally recovered after a two-day sell-off in global equities. The yuan has also retreated following reports that the IMF and U.S. Treasury have concluded that China isn’t manipulating its exchange rate. Here are the stories we are following today:… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 11, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] [BREAKING: President Trump agreed to a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss ongoing trade tensions during the G20 Summit. Earlier this week, U.S. officials had warned China that trade discussions would only take place if it provided a detailed list of trade concessions.… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 10, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures have weakened on an unexpected jump in core PPI (see below). Here is what we are following: China: There were a few items of interest this morning. First, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned China not to use a weaker currency to offset U.S. trade… Read More »