Research & News
Daily Comment (May 22, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet this morning. This is what we are watching this morning: The problem of priorities: There is a stock scene in most action movies where the hero is surrounded by bad guys but, inexplicably, they attack one at a time. The hero fends… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Cyberwar (May 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Memorial Day holiday, our next report will be published on June 4.) On Saturday, May 11, the New York Times ran an article on the threat of Iranian cyberattacks.[1] Although the report didn’t necessarily break any new ground, cyberwar does pose some interesting issues for American hegemony. In this report,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 21, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! There was a lot of weekend news. Let’s dig in: Trade war postponed: Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that China and the U.S. have postponed any trade actions while talks continue on the structure of the trading relationship. Equity prices rose, the dollar moved… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (May 18, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee In our asset allocation process, we focus on cyclical trends; that doesn’t mean we pay no attention to secular trends but it isn’t our primary emphasis. The lack of clarity around what these terms mean can lead to confusion. And so, over the next few weeks, we will examine the difference between… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 18, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! Financial markets are mostly flat this morning. This is what we are watching: Italy: The FT[1] is reporting that the Five-Star Movement and the League have reached a deal to form a government, although the prime minister post has not been settled. We would… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 17, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet this morning. This is what we are watching: More in Italy: Governments are powerful but not omnipotent. When financial markets turn on a country, it can force unwelcome policy changes. The populists in Italy are finding this out the hard way. As… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 16, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s mid-week! Here is what we are watching this morning: A DPRK snag? Yesterday afternoon, the Kim regime turned hostile, calling off talks with South Korea and threatening to cancel the summit meeting with President Trump. There is a lot of uncertainty around this sudden change… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 15, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk markets are under some pressure this morning. Here is what we are watching this morning: Clarida to the Hill: Richard Clarida, Columbia University economist and Global Strategic Advisor for PIMCO, testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on his way to a confirmation vote. Michelle Bowman,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Marshall Plan: A Review (May 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady We occasionally run across a book that we deem important enough in the arena of geopolitics to warrant a full report dedicated to its review. Recently, we happened upon a book that fits this requirement, The Marshall Plan: Dawn of the Cold War by Benn Steil.[1] This book details the history of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 14, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Here is what we are watching this morning: ZTE relief? In a surprise announcement, President Trump tweeted that he is seeking some sort of relief for the embattled company. ZTE (ZTCOF, 2.26, delayed) is under a rather harsh penalty from the Commerce Department for… Read More »